Thursday, July 30, 2009
Monday, July 27, 2009
Moon Tramp is known to be a harsh jersey critic. But can he do better? Give it a shot at www.thesportingstore.com/hockey.htm.
Most people say yes. But these things can get overblown as one pundit regurgitates another's thoughts. Ultimately it can be hard to tell what the origins of opinion are (a couple bad games that happened to be caught by the opinion-maker that led the charge?) Usually there is something to consensus opinion, but there's no question it can get exaggerated. Which is why stats, with all their inherent flaws and limitations provide good unbiased information helpful to support or counter subjective views.
However, defense has been notoriously hard to measure given that its a team game with highley variable circumstances.
Nonetheless, over an 82 game season (and beyond) perhaps some useful trends come to light. And a defense stat is indeed available: DRtg. Defensive rating is a simple stat intended to measure defensive performance. This article goes into some detail about its pluses and minuses but in summary:
According to DRtg, Miller was a mediocre to bad (in the 80s for guards) defensive PG last season - far from the worst - Steve Nash. Though prominent PG's below him include Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, TJ Ford, and of course...Steve Blake.
If you look at Philly, they were a pretty bad team (a little surprising considering Dalembert is considered a shot blocker and Iguadala a quality defender), so how much of the blame falls on Miller for the defense? When he was off the court the defense got much worse. Then again, his backup was a guy named Louis Williams who is a short scorer in the Iversonian mold, so maybe that not saying much.
As, MT points out, one year doesn't mean much, so maybe there is a pattern here? In 2008, Miller had a similar rank (middling to low for point guards) and the result is the same for all of his seasons with the 76ers. But he's been on several other teams before that. Were the results (DRtg of around 108-109) the same?
2005-06 DEN 107.5
2002-03 LAC 109.2
2001-02 CLE 108.8
Looks like it. So either Miller has consistently played with bad defensive teams or he is himself a mediocre to bad defender. Nonetheless, his defense is probably getting underrated. He's numbers indicate he is closer to mediocre than a major liability like Ben Gordon, Steve Nash, Kevin Martin, or Jamaal Crawford. Then again, the numbers stay he's on par with Steve Blake last year.
I wouldn't expect things to get any better with this team. But you never know... On the other hand, things shouldn't get any worse. And with an 8M expiring contract starting after next season, he'll be a valuable trade chip for teams looking to dump salary or acquire a solid PG.
However, defense has been notoriously hard to measure given that its a team game with highley variable circumstances.
Measuring good defense directly is especially complicated, as picks/switches and fast breaks make it too difficult to pin one individuals points directly to the most responsible defender. Also, things like good rotations, strong shows on pick-and-rolls, and many other things that make up “good defense” just don’t show up in the boxscores.
Nonetheless, over an 82 game season (and beyond) perhaps some useful trends come to light. And a defense stat is indeed available: DRtg. Defensive rating is a simple stat intended to measure defensive performance. This article goes into some detail about its pluses and minuses but in summary:
DRTG ... adds up how many points were scored while a player is on the court and normalizes for 100 possessions....the lower the DRTG the better. normalization ...clarifies the difference between a defense that makes it hard for opponents to score and one that allows low points/game due to slowing down the game. because DRTG is a team measure it can be unduly influenced by teammates
According to DRtg, Miller was a mediocre to bad (in the 80s for guards) defensive PG last season - far from the worst - Steve Nash. Though prominent PG's below him include Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, TJ Ford, and of course...Steve Blake.
If you look at Philly, they were a pretty bad team (a little surprising considering Dalembert is considered a shot blocker and Iguadala a quality defender), so how much of the blame falls on Miller for the defense? When he was off the court the defense got much worse. Then again, his backup was a guy named Louis Williams who is a short scorer in the Iversonian mold, so maybe that not saying much.
As, MT points out, one year doesn't mean much, so maybe there is a pattern here? In 2008, Miller had a similar rank (middling to low for point guards) and the result is the same for all of his seasons with the 76ers. But he's been on several other teams before that. Were the results (DRtg of around 108-109) the same?
2005-06 DEN 107.5
2002-03 LAC 109.2
2001-02 CLE 108.8
Looks like it. So either Miller has consistently played with bad defensive teams or he is himself a mediocre to bad defender. Nonetheless, his defense is probably getting underrated. He's numbers indicate he is closer to mediocre than a major liability like Ben Gordon, Steve Nash, Kevin Martin, or Jamaal Crawford. Then again, the numbers stay he's on par with Steve Blake last year.
I wouldn't expect things to get any better with this team. But you never know... On the other hand, things shouldn't get any worse. And with an 8M expiring contract starting after next season, he'll be a valuable trade chip for teams looking to dump salary or acquire a solid PG.
This dude makes a case for why not, focusing on offense:
The Blazers were first - yes, FIRST - in the league in offense. No one scored more points per possession than the Blazers.
How did they do it? Very strangely. Usually, the league leader in offense is a team that can shoot the lights out (see Suns, 2005) or never commits turnovers (see Mavericks, 2004), or some combination of those things (see Nuggets, 1982). Portland was neither. Oh, they were pretty good at those things: the Blazers were the 8th best shooting team in the NBA (as measured by eFG%) and the 7th best team at avoiding turnovers. They were about average (17th) at getting to the line (as measured by FT/FGA). They weren't bad at any of these things.
So how were they the best offense in the NBA? Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. The NBA's two best rebounders last season were Portland's starting center and its backup center (Przybilla and Oden led the NBA in Reb%). Portland was BY FAR the NBA's best offensive rebounding team. The gap between them and 2nd (Philadelphia) was bigger than the gap between average and 3rd. Basically, Portland was decent at everything except rebounding, where they were brilliant, at that's why their offense was so good...
...That Miller is a bad shooter is a simple matter of record. His eFG% is .480, which is below Portland's average of .511. This is mainly because he is a reluctant (0.7 3PAPG career) and bad (.210 3P% career) 3 point shooter. He does not improve Portland's shooting in the slightest.
But I'm making Miller sound like an offensive black hole, even though he's not. He has undeniable skills on offense, but those skills are all wrong for the Blazers. To begin with, he is one of the league's best rebounding point guards (it's no coincidence that Philly was 2nd in offensive rebounding last season), but as should be clear by now, rebounding is pretty much the last thing that Portland needs right now.
Miller is one of the league's best point guards at leading the break. Here's the problem, though: Portland does not break. Ever. Portland was the NBA's SLOWEST - yes, slowest, as in last, #30 - team last year. Basically Portland's offense, which was the NBA's best, was entirely predicated around methodically getting the ball up the court, waiting for a decent shot, taking it, and rebounding the miss. This worked extremely well, and the Blazers should be courting players who can work within that framework. Miller fails on all counts.
So where could Portland potentially improve? Defense, obviously: Portland ranked 13th in defense last year. Unfortunately, Miller is a pretty bad defender, with DRtg perennially above 110. His best skill on defense - rebounding - is again what Portland needs least. That's pretty much the one thing the Blazers are very good at already on defense.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
The Blazers have somewhere between 7 and 8M to spend. Realizing they lose that opportunity if they don't use it now, they've actively pursued some reaches like Turkoglu (good fit but old, mediocre, and expensive) and Millsap (nice addition in terms of style of play and character, but a questionable fit on the roster). They've been unsuccessful and are now rumored to be talking to Andre Miller. This would be a bad mistake because the two biggest needs at PG are a defender and a three-point shooter. Miller is neither. He's strong but slow, which might help against Billups, Kidd, and Fisher, but won't help against Paul, Parker, and most younger quicker point guards. He is horrendous outside shooter and a slight ball hog. He's an upgrade but not one worth a great deal of money. I think it risks stunting the team's growth to add him.
Meanwhile, talented, well-rounded, former #1 overall pick Marvin Williams remains on the market, available, for the right price.
Yahoo puts it more succinctly than I would:
A sound defender and efficient scorer who, at age 23, will only get better. Seriously, this guy can defend damn well, and he's a perfect fit on a team with lots of hungry mouths to feed and not enough basketballs to go around. He gets to the line, too. Gives Mike Bibby(notes) a chance to adjust his calf sleeve.
What will it take for Atlanta to decline a match? Quite a bit. Williams' qualifying offer is up over $7.3 million, he's probably worth a little more, and I bet the Hawks (a team far away from the luxury tax, looking to win now) would even venture into eight figures in Williams' first year. Not that they'll have to. Though Marvin would be a fabulous fit in Portland.
Yes he would. He shoots a solid percentage, has range, doesn't demand the ball, is unselfish, is long, and most importantly, is a quality defender who can swing between the 3 and 4. Picture a stronger Travis Outlaw with better offensive decision making.
Getting Williams would be an upgrade that fits into the long-term plan of the franchise. Getting Miller would be a short-term upgrade that risks upsetting what has been built thusfar.
Then package Outlaw, Bayless, and perhaps another asset for that PG.
Meanwhile, talented, well-rounded, former #1 overall pick Marvin Williams remains on the market, available, for the right price.
Yahoo puts it more succinctly than I would:
A sound defender and efficient scorer who, at age 23, will only get better. Seriously, this guy can defend damn well, and he's a perfect fit on a team with lots of hungry mouths to feed and not enough basketballs to go around. He gets to the line, too. Gives Mike Bibby(notes) a chance to adjust his calf sleeve.
What will it take for Atlanta to decline a match? Quite a bit. Williams' qualifying offer is up over $7.3 million, he's probably worth a little more, and I bet the Hawks (a team far away from the luxury tax, looking to win now) would even venture into eight figures in Williams' first year. Not that they'll have to. Though Marvin would be a fabulous fit in Portland.
Yes he would. He shoots a solid percentage, has range, doesn't demand the ball, is unselfish, is long, and most importantly, is a quality defender who can swing between the 3 and 4. Picture a stronger Travis Outlaw with better offensive decision making.
Getting Williams would be an upgrade that fits into the long-term plan of the franchise. Getting Miller would be a short-term upgrade that risks upsetting what has been built thusfar.
Then package Outlaw, Bayless, and perhaps another asset for that PG.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
I've listed 13 reasons why Joe Dumars should be fired. You can find the details here, but to recap:
Past Mistakes
#1 Acquisitions Before 2005 Are Overrated.
#2 Post-Championship Strategy Was An Opportunity Lost
#3 Personnel Acquisitions Since 2005 Are Awful.
#4 Rebuild Without Losing Philosophy Is Flawed
#5 Damaging Media Transparency
Present
#6 Signing players as soon as they hit the market.
#7 Focusing on offense.
#8 Ignoring size.
#9. Becoming enamored with "hybrids".
#10 Identical players at same position.
#11 Playing favorites
#12 Giving up on 2010
General
#13 Failure to Evolve
Those are his failings, but Joe Dumars has his good qualities too. He generally avoids overpaying people who are past their prime. He finds solid NBA players in unexpected places. He manages personalities within a roster well. He cuts his losses without worrying about embarrassment. He is generally professional and demands a respectful and well-run organization. He is focused on long-term sustainability rather than riskier short run success.
Joe Dumars has had success and his resume and accomplishments are above average. I'm not arguing otherwise. The NBA, more than other major sports tolerates management failure and rehires the same unsuccessful coaches and GMs repeatedly. Check out Mike Dunleavy's coach resume or Rich Sund's managerial career. These are guys with demonstrated ability to run franchises into the ground with upside of mediocrity, yet they keep getting rehired. There's many more like them. Relative to the majority, Joe is a genius. And he is worth learning and imitating in many respects.
Probably Joe's greatest move was the Larry Brown hiring. It was gutsy to fire a successful coach in Rick Carlisle. The team had improved dramatically under him and appeared on a steady rise. What Joe saw was a coach who had good qualities, was clearly above average overall, and had a good track record. And yet... he fired him to get better. He saw the failings amidst the success and where it was all headed. Joe realized Carlisle had probably done all that he could and it was time to upgrade. A preemptive strike before things headed too far south. I'm arguing for the same thing here.
Past Mistakes
#1 Acquisitions Before 2005 Are Overrated.
#2 Post-Championship Strategy Was An Opportunity Lost
#3 Personnel Acquisitions Since 2005 Are Awful.
#4 Rebuild Without Losing Philosophy Is Flawed
#5 Damaging Media Transparency
Present
#6 Signing players as soon as they hit the market.
#7 Focusing on offense.
#8 Ignoring size.
#9. Becoming enamored with "hybrids".
#10 Identical players at same position.
#11 Playing favorites
#12 Giving up on 2010
General
#13 Failure to Evolve
Those are his failings, but Joe Dumars has his good qualities too. He generally avoids overpaying people who are past their prime. He finds solid NBA players in unexpected places. He manages personalities within a roster well. He cuts his losses without worrying about embarrassment. He is generally professional and demands a respectful and well-run organization. He is focused on long-term sustainability rather than riskier short run success.
Joe Dumars has had success and his resume and accomplishments are above average. I'm not arguing otherwise. The NBA, more than other major sports tolerates management failure and rehires the same unsuccessful coaches and GMs repeatedly. Check out Mike Dunleavy's coach resume or Rich Sund's managerial career. These are guys with demonstrated ability to run franchises into the ground with upside of mediocrity, yet they keep getting rehired. There's many more like them. Relative to the majority, Joe is a genius. And he is worth learning and imitating in many respects.
Probably Joe's greatest move was the Larry Brown hiring. It was gutsy to fire a successful coach in Rick Carlisle. The team had improved dramatically under him and appeared on a steady rise. What Joe saw was a coach who had good qualities, was clearly above average overall, and had a good track record. And yet... he fired him to get better. He saw the failings amidst the success and where it was all headed. Joe realized Carlisle had probably done all that he could and it was time to upgrade. A preemptive strike before things headed too far south. I'm arguing for the same thing here.
#13 Failure to Evolve
The leading franchises in the NBA are embracing statistical analysis as an important tool to support decision making in player personnel. While we can’t prove its delivered any titles, we’ve seen teams rumored to be at the forefront of statistical analysis make fast leaps to contention (Houston and Portland, in particular.) Detroit has NEVER been mentioned or discussed in relation to statistical analysis which leads me to believe they’re not doing it.
Joe Dumars used to be a guy who thought differently than others. He brought in players who were discarded by other franchises. He focused on length rather than height. He valued college productivity more than star potential. While remnants of this philosophy exist, they’ve also been completely discarded in other instances. But the important concept here is that the league has caught up and surpassed him on these ideas and there don’t seem to be any new ones coming from Auburn Hills.
Portland has embraced injury risk and focused on high character players. Houston has obtained players who excel at one or more specialized areas. What unique strategy is Joe Dumars pursuing other than building a team that isn’t based around stars?
Where is the hope that Pistons fans can cling to other than the ubiquitous longshot daydreaming that 2nd round picks will develop into all-stars.
The leading franchises in the NBA are embracing statistical analysis as an important tool to support decision making in player personnel. While we can’t prove its delivered any titles, we’ve seen teams rumored to be at the forefront of statistical analysis make fast leaps to contention (Houston and Portland, in particular.) Detroit has NEVER been mentioned or discussed in relation to statistical analysis which leads me to believe they’re not doing it.
Joe Dumars used to be a guy who thought differently than others. He brought in players who were discarded by other franchises. He focused on length rather than height. He valued college productivity more than star potential. While remnants of this philosophy exist, they’ve also been completely discarded in other instances. But the important concept here is that the league has caught up and surpassed him on these ideas and there don’t seem to be any new ones coming from Auburn Hills.
Portland has embraced injury risk and focused on high character players. Houston has obtained players who excel at one or more specialized areas. What unique strategy is Joe Dumars pursuing other than building a team that isn’t based around stars?
Where is the hope that Pistons fans can cling to other than the ubiquitous longshot daydreaming that 2nd round picks will develop into all-stars.
Like #6 and #7, these relate specifically to the 2009 offseason.
#8 Ignoring size.
This is again related to Ben Gordon and again going against the grain of what wins in the NBA. He's simply too small to defend many bigger shooting guards. Although they’ll probably add another front court player of a Drew Gooden caliber, the current front court of Villanueva, Maxiell, and Brown will be undersized. The Pistons will have arguably the worst front court, defensively if not overall, in the NBA. Things have come a long way from Wallace, Wallace, Okur, Campbell, Williamson, and a #2 overall draftpick in the frontline. Defensively, the backcourt won’t be much better – well below average in the NBA.
#9. Becoming enamored with "hybrids".
Every good team has a few, but hybrid shouldn't be some sort of team-wide target. Villanueva is a good shooter and strong dribbler for a 6'11 player. He's more Rashard Lewis than Elton Brand and perhaps Orlando serves as the inspiration for the signing. But lets remember this is a player a talent-bereft Milwaukee franchise didn't even bother to tender an offer too he was so bad. You still need big men who are physical presences inside. Gordon is more obvious - a point guards size with a shooters game. He's a good role player but role players don't get $11M annual contracts. Well, Ben Wallace did I guess and the Bulls have been celebrating titles ever since… Generally teams that win do it with players who to a large degree fit a traditional role. Kobe is a shooting guard and nothing else. Shaq was a center. Allen/Pierce/KG. etc.
#10 Identical players at same position.
Two stocky scoring point guards who love to drive. Two shooting guards who love to shoot from outside. Two weak lanky small forwards with good outside shots. Three rookie SF/PFs on the roster. This is horrendous roster construction.
#11 Playing favorites
I understand why Joe Dumars likes Rip Hamilton and Tay Prince, but they’re not the kind of players you build a team around. They’re middling NBA starters – good complimentary players but far from elite. When rumors of trades hit – Hamilton and Stuckey for Rondo and Allen, or Prince for Boozers, I can’t believe Joe turned them down. With Hamilton, you just signed a similar replacement. With Prince you have three rookies who play the same position with Hamilton and Villanueva capable of swinging to SF as well. Dumars is holding on to these guys and handing out fat contracts like they are prized possessions. Dumars is letting his feelings compromise his judgment.
#12 Giving up on 2010
Many teams are saving up their cap space to make a run at elite free agents coming available after next season. For most, this will be a fruitless effort and disappointment but they’re willing to take a chance in hopes of acquiring elite players. It would be one thing if Dumars gave up on 2010 to take advantage of bargains in 2009 but, as discussed above, he hasn’t done that. With $10 in his pocket Joe ran into Zupans and bought some Fruit Loops and CapNCrunch. Instead, he could have gotten some lotto tickets or purchased twice as much cereal (maybe even some nutritious stuff) from Costco. But when Joe Dumars wants some sugar he Acts Boldly!
#8 Ignoring size.
This is again related to Ben Gordon and again going against the grain of what wins in the NBA. He's simply too small to defend many bigger shooting guards. Although they’ll probably add another front court player of a Drew Gooden caliber, the current front court of Villanueva, Maxiell, and Brown will be undersized. The Pistons will have arguably the worst front court, defensively if not overall, in the NBA. Things have come a long way from Wallace, Wallace, Okur, Campbell, Williamson, and a #2 overall draftpick in the frontline. Defensively, the backcourt won’t be much better – well below average in the NBA.
#9. Becoming enamored with "hybrids".
Every good team has a few, but hybrid shouldn't be some sort of team-wide target. Villanueva is a good shooter and strong dribbler for a 6'11 player. He's more Rashard Lewis than Elton Brand and perhaps Orlando serves as the inspiration for the signing. But lets remember this is a player a talent-bereft Milwaukee franchise didn't even bother to tender an offer too he was so bad. You still need big men who are physical presences inside. Gordon is more obvious - a point guards size with a shooters game. He's a good role player but role players don't get $11M annual contracts. Well, Ben Wallace did I guess and the Bulls have been celebrating titles ever since… Generally teams that win do it with players who to a large degree fit a traditional role. Kobe is a shooting guard and nothing else. Shaq was a center. Allen/Pierce/KG. etc.
#10 Identical players at same position.
Two stocky scoring point guards who love to drive. Two shooting guards who love to shoot from outside. Two weak lanky small forwards with good outside shots. Three rookie SF/PFs on the roster. This is horrendous roster construction.
#11 Playing favorites
I understand why Joe Dumars likes Rip Hamilton and Tay Prince, but they’re not the kind of players you build a team around. They’re middling NBA starters – good complimentary players but far from elite. When rumors of trades hit – Hamilton and Stuckey for Rondo and Allen, or Prince for Boozers, I can’t believe Joe turned them down. With Hamilton, you just signed a similar replacement. With Prince you have three rookies who play the same position with Hamilton and Villanueva capable of swinging to SF as well. Dumars is holding on to these guys and handing out fat contracts like they are prized possessions. Dumars is letting his feelings compromise his judgment.
#12 Giving up on 2010
Many teams are saving up their cap space to make a run at elite free agents coming available after next season. For most, this will be a fruitless effort and disappointment but they’re willing to take a chance in hopes of acquiring elite players. It would be one thing if Dumars gave up on 2010 to take advantage of bargains in 2009 but, as discussed above, he hasn’t done that. With $10 in his pocket Joe ran into Zupans and bought some Fruit Loops and CapNCrunch. Instead, he could have gotten some lotto tickets or purchased twice as much cereal (maybe even some nutritious stuff) from Costco. But when Joe Dumars wants some sugar he Acts Boldly!
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
#7 Focusing on offense.
Over and over again we see that the best teams in the NBA are defensive-oriented. You can get by with some bad defenders here or there, but when you're two biggest free agents are considered to be guys who are so bad at defense that they need 4 quality defenders around them at all times, you're asking for trouble. This is a total philosophical reversal from what brought Joe D success in the past. Moreover, its completely counterintuitive to add a backup scoring guard and perimeter oriented scoring power forward to paired with two scoring guards (Stuckey and Hamilton).
It appears Joe is reportedly taking a new direction - offense first, defense not at all. Though that seems to clash with the philosophy of his new coach…
Over and over again we see that the best teams in the NBA are defensive-oriented. You can get by with some bad defenders here or there, but when you're two biggest free agents are considered to be guys who are so bad at defense that they need 4 quality defenders around them at all times, you're asking for trouble. This is a total philosophical reversal from what brought Joe D success in the past. Moreover, its completely counterintuitive to add a backup scoring guard and perimeter oriented scoring power forward to paired with two scoring guards (Stuckey and Hamilton).
It appears Joe is reportedly taking a new direction - offense first, defense not at all. Though that seems to clash with the philosophy of his new coach…
The incompetence of this offseason has been thoroughly discussed in the media. The opinions have been generally negative but there is an undercurrent of “Trust Joe” and “Bold Change” as well. To recap:
The next several Fire Joe D Reasons will take a look at how and why this major transformation exhibits incompetence by the General Manager. While I obviously can't argue it hasn't worked until it happens, I can argue the offseason has been a debacle because of strategic and philosophical missteps....
#6 Signing players as soon as they hit the market.
In a buyers market this is essentially bidding against yourself. I'm a bigger fan of smart moves than bold ones and the way Joe went about signing CV and BG was anything but smart. This may be a dated reference, but you wouldn't walk into a grocery store with a coupon flier and bypass the potential bargains because you're in a hurry to get past because of the off chance someone buys the last of the yogurt you want. Well, you might if you really want yogurt and don't care about your food budget...
Who was Detroit's competition for Ben Gordon? Most teams are either trying to cut salary or saving their spending for 2010. The competition for players will never again be so small. The only teams with cap space were Portland, OKC, and Memphis. Each of these teams already has franchise shooting guards. Chicago, BG's former team, already has a deep backcourt and no inclination to cut into 2010 salary cap space. Why not be patient and let the market dictate the price for a guy you are bringing in as a backup anyway? CV is more uncertain: there's a chance another team he preferred playing for would have thrown a mid-level contract at him. The salary gap between what Detroit paid him and the mid-level wasn't that large. But we'll never know if Detroit was overpaying or not because no one else got a chance to compete... Regardless, the smart move is to sit tight and let the market’s bargain come out over time. Detroit killed any chance of getting bargain values by voluntarily overpaying to make sure they got their targeted players. In the end it probably cost them a good deal of salary cap space and the chance to add another quality player to a roster that desperately needs it.
Subtractions
-Allen Iverson (FA - veteran free agent)
-Rasheed Wallace (FA)
-Antonio McDyess (FA)
-Walter Hermann (FA)
-Amir Johnson (pick - traded former draft pick)
-Aaron Afflalo (pick)
-Walter Sharpe (pick)
Additions
-Charlie Villanueva (free agent)
-Ben Gordan (free agent)
-Drafted SF/PF hybrids (Daye, Summers, Jerebko).
The next several Fire Joe D Reasons will take a look at how and why this major transformation exhibits incompetence by the General Manager. While I obviously can't argue it hasn't worked until it happens, I can argue the offseason has been a debacle because of strategic and philosophical missteps....
#6 Signing players as soon as they hit the market.
In a buyers market this is essentially bidding against yourself. I'm a bigger fan of smart moves than bold ones and the way Joe went about signing CV and BG was anything but smart. This may be a dated reference, but you wouldn't walk into a grocery store with a coupon flier and bypass the potential bargains because you're in a hurry to get past because of the off chance someone buys the last of the yogurt you want. Well, you might if you really want yogurt and don't care about your food budget...
Who was Detroit's competition for Ben Gordon? Most teams are either trying to cut salary or saving their spending for 2010. The competition for players will never again be so small. The only teams with cap space were Portland, OKC, and Memphis. Each of these teams already has franchise shooting guards. Chicago, BG's former team, already has a deep backcourt and no inclination to cut into 2010 salary cap space. Why not be patient and let the market dictate the price for a guy you are bringing in as a backup anyway? CV is more uncertain: there's a chance another team he preferred playing for would have thrown a mid-level contract at him. The salary gap between what Detroit paid him and the mid-level wasn't that large. But we'll never know if Detroit was overpaying or not because no one else got a chance to compete... Regardless, the smart move is to sit tight and let the market’s bargain come out over time. Detroit killed any chance of getting bargain values by voluntarily overpaying to make sure they got their targeted players. In the end it probably cost them a good deal of salary cap space and the chance to add another quality player to a roster that desperately needs it.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
#5 Media Transparency
Joe Dumars publicly releases information that damages his cause. He makes his intentions known and opens himself up to being outmaneuvered. This is somewhat arrogant but more importantly its dumb.
Dumars’ draft intentions have been an open book for years. This year it was rumored he wanted Earl Clark and would take Austin Daye otherwise. Clark was gone so the pick was Daye. A few years ago, everyone knew Joe was in love with Rodney Stuckey. Since Joe has drafted poorly with higher picks, no one really cares to steal the players he covets ahead of him. But they could have.
Last offseason, he made a proclamation in public about wanting to make big changes to his core. Off course that killed any good offers he might have gotten for Billups/Hamilton/Prince/Wallace because he was perceived as a seller. This was a dumb comment. No trade was made and the team had a terrible attitude and fell to the 8th seed in the east. Instead, he should have publicly stated he was going to keep building around his "untouchable" core and made some under the radar proposals.
This offseason, he made a public comment about needed an experienced head coach. Problem is, there were only a few out there. Again, Joe D killed his leverage by making his intentions public. Avery Johnson reportedly demanded more money than Joe was willing to pay and that was that. A rookie NBA head coach was hired instead.
The desire for Charlie Villanueva and especially Ben Gordon was also leaked in advance. Again, no one else wanted to compete with Joe for these players so nothing bad happened, but you understand the drawback here.
Whether due to incompetence, cockiness, or indifference, Joe D now seems more interested in being perceived as a determined straight shooter who knows what he wants and goes out and gets it rather than being a shrewd mover and shaker. This reminds me of our previous president a little. The Billups signing, Hamilton trade, Prince draft, R.Wallace trade, and B.Wallace acquisition came out of nowhere. Joe doesn't operate that way anymore.
Joe Dumars publicly releases information that damages his cause. He makes his intentions known and opens himself up to being outmaneuvered. This is somewhat arrogant but more importantly its dumb.
Dumars’ draft intentions have been an open book for years. This year it was rumored he wanted Earl Clark and would take Austin Daye otherwise. Clark was gone so the pick was Daye. A few years ago, everyone knew Joe was in love with Rodney Stuckey. Since Joe has drafted poorly with higher picks, no one really cares to steal the players he covets ahead of him. But they could have.
Last offseason, he made a proclamation in public about wanting to make big changes to his core. Off course that killed any good offers he might have gotten for Billups/Hamilton/Prince/Wallace because he was perceived as a seller. This was a dumb comment. No trade was made and the team had a terrible attitude and fell to the 8th seed in the east. Instead, he should have publicly stated he was going to keep building around his "untouchable" core and made some under the radar proposals.
This offseason, he made a public comment about needed an experienced head coach. Problem is, there were only a few out there. Again, Joe D killed his leverage by making his intentions public. Avery Johnson reportedly demanded more money than Joe was willing to pay and that was that. A rookie NBA head coach was hired instead.
The desire for Charlie Villanueva and especially Ben Gordon was also leaked in advance. Again, no one else wanted to compete with Joe for these players so nothing bad happened, but you understand the drawback here.
Whether due to incompetence, cockiness, or indifference, Joe D now seems more interested in being perceived as a determined straight shooter who knows what he wants and goes out and gets it rather than being a shrewd mover and shaker. This reminds me of our previous president a little. The Billups signing, Hamilton trade, Prince draft, R.Wallace trade, and B.Wallace acquisition came out of nowhere. Joe doesn't operate that way anymore.
#4 Philosophy (2005 And Beyond) - Rebuild Without Losing
Joe Dumars has stated that rebuilding is difficult. He says he doesn’t want to give away the talent he acquired for nothing. Instead he will try to hold on to the talent he has and supplement it through trades, free agent signings and draft picks. Reload instead of rebuild.
This is a valid point, it is difficult and unpleasant to rebuild. But he’s ignoring the fact that trying to rebuild while remaining in contention without superstars is far MORE difficult. In fact, no team I can remember has been able to do it. Sure you can be a perennial 5 seed but that wears on fanbases.
The second part of the reload strategy is doing it without superstars. The origins of this theory are in the 2004 champions which were built without (though Billups and Wallace were superstar talents). Joe, burned by the Grant Hill and Allen Houston situations, wants to rebuild with many quality players instead of a max-level superstar.
Problem is, that 2004 team was an anomaly. Everything went right for that team to win. Great chemistry, guys who knew their roles, team play, excellent coaching, deep and diverse talent that fit together ideally, etc. It won't at all be easy to recreate that.
Its smarter to tear down and then build up a la Seattle/Portland who struggled mightily by trying to follow the same path before eventually succumbing to the rebuilding process. And that’s just what will happen in Detroit. Eventually Joe will acknowledge its not working and he’ll have to rebuild. This slow bleed is far more unpleasant.
I know Joe wants to defy convention, every other team tries to acquire superstars to build around, either through free agency or the draft, but this is a foolhardy approach especially when you're choosing to build around two highly paid complimentary players at the easiest positions to fill in the NBA (SG and SF).
Joe Dumars has stated that rebuilding is difficult. He says he doesn’t want to give away the talent he acquired for nothing. Instead he will try to hold on to the talent he has and supplement it through trades, free agent signings and draft picks. Reload instead of rebuild.
This is a valid point, it is difficult and unpleasant to rebuild. But he’s ignoring the fact that trying to rebuild while remaining in contention without superstars is far MORE difficult. In fact, no team I can remember has been able to do it. Sure you can be a perennial 5 seed but that wears on fanbases.
The second part of the reload strategy is doing it without superstars. The origins of this theory are in the 2004 champions which were built without (though Billups and Wallace were superstar talents). Joe, burned by the Grant Hill and Allen Houston situations, wants to rebuild with many quality players instead of a max-level superstar.
Problem is, that 2004 team was an anomaly. Everything went right for that team to win. Great chemistry, guys who knew their roles, team play, excellent coaching, deep and diverse talent that fit together ideally, etc. It won't at all be easy to recreate that.
Its smarter to tear down and then build up a la Seattle/Portland who struggled mightily by trying to follow the same path before eventually succumbing to the rebuilding process. And that’s just what will happen in Detroit. Eventually Joe will acknowledge its not working and he’ll have to rebuild. This slow bleed is far more unpleasant.
I know Joe wants to defy convention, every other team tries to acquire superstars to build around, either through free agency or the draft, but this is a foolhardy approach especially when you're choosing to build around two highly paid complimentary players at the easiest positions to fill in the NBA (SG and SF).
#3 Acquisitions Since 2005 Are Awful.
While I documented Joe Dumars' mixed successes as a decision maker and ultimate success as the management behind the 2004 NBA title, his moves after the pivotal 2005 offseason have been staggeringly bad. (Note: not including 2009 summer yet, because its too unknown, but I'll discuss that in another post.)
Coaches: Saunders and Curry. Both major busts. Saunders took a back-to-back Eastern Conference champs and turned them into losers against inferior teams (especially Cleveland.) Curry was fired after one season and didn't get along with players. Flip was not respected, which why would he after Carlisle and L.Brown?
Draft picks: A host of irrelevant picks but, in fairness, he hasn’t exactly had good draft position besides Stuckey. The verdict on Stuckey is still out, but where is the famous ability to find late round steals? Amir Johnson was a waste of time. Detroit just paid Denver to take Afflalo and Sharpe off their hands. Same with Cheick Samb earlier. The top 2007 pick - Stuckey - was taken before Rudy Fernandez, Aaron Brooks, Glen Davis, and Marc Gasol. The 2008 pick (Sharpe) was taken before Joey Dorsey, Mario Chalmers and DeAndre Jordan.
The haul has been awful and Joe's selections have been failures (again, jury still out on Stuckey.) Even the 2005 pick - Jason Maxiell, which I'm not including here, but seems decent for a late first rounder, came before Monta Ellis, Ronny Turiaf, Brandon Bass, Ryan Gomes, Marcin Gortat and David Lee.
Free agents: Chris Webber, Derrick Coleman, Nazr Mohammed, Kwame Brown (all failures), overpaid to keep Amir. Signed Rip Hamilton to a 3 year extension almost everyone agrees is a liability less than a year after it happened.
Trades: Dealt away Nazr Mohammed shortly after signing him. Dealt Billups for Iverson. Nothing lost maybe, but certainly nothing gained.
I feel comfortable saying Joe Dumars hasn't made a single acquisition that has improved the team since 2005. The moves have ranged from neutral to disastrous. The magic touch (read: luck) Dumars had prior to the title run has been gone for years.
While I documented Joe Dumars' mixed successes as a decision maker and ultimate success as the management behind the 2004 NBA title, his moves after the pivotal 2005 offseason have been staggeringly bad. (Note: not including 2009 summer yet, because its too unknown, but I'll discuss that in another post.)
Coaches: Saunders and Curry. Both major busts. Saunders took a back-to-back Eastern Conference champs and turned them into losers against inferior teams (especially Cleveland.) Curry was fired after one season and didn't get along with players. Flip was not respected, which why would he after Carlisle and L.Brown?
Draft picks: A host of irrelevant picks but, in fairness, he hasn’t exactly had good draft position besides Stuckey. The verdict on Stuckey is still out, but where is the famous ability to find late round steals? Amir Johnson was a waste of time. Detroit just paid Denver to take Afflalo and Sharpe off their hands. Same with Cheick Samb earlier. The top 2007 pick - Stuckey - was taken before Rudy Fernandez, Aaron Brooks, Glen Davis, and Marc Gasol. The 2008 pick (Sharpe) was taken before Joey Dorsey, Mario Chalmers and DeAndre Jordan.
The haul has been awful and Joe's selections have been failures (again, jury still out on Stuckey.) Even the 2005 pick - Jason Maxiell, which I'm not including here, but seems decent for a late first rounder, came before Monta Ellis, Ronny Turiaf, Brandon Bass, Ryan Gomes, Marcin Gortat and David Lee.
Free agents: Chris Webber, Derrick Coleman, Nazr Mohammed, Kwame Brown (all failures), overpaid to keep Amir. Signed Rip Hamilton to a 3 year extension almost everyone agrees is a liability less than a year after it happened.
Trades: Dealt away Nazr Mohammed shortly after signing him. Dealt Billups for Iverson. Nothing lost maybe, but certainly nothing gained.
I feel comfortable saying Joe Dumars hasn't made a single acquisition that has improved the team since 2005. The moves have ranged from neutral to disastrous. The magic touch (read: luck) Dumars had prior to the title run has been gone for years.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Is running nonpartisan?
Oh, thank God, it's nonpartisan. It doesn't matter your background, your demographics, your race, your political affiliation—it's such a uniting, healthy, fun, awesome activity. It cracks me up going to some running event and seeing some dude who campaigned so hard against me, or a lady who's been blogging some mean comments about me. But we're all there together and we're smiling and we're having a good time because we're going to do something healthy and active. We need more of that. That's what sports are able to do. It's a wonderful kind of diversion from the divisiveness that is politics or that is life. And my parents, they've got so many friends from so many different political bents because of all their years participating in races and organizing races. I was lucky enough to have been brought up in that atmosphere where I see the value in that.
Our president, I'm told, is a runner. Would you ever run with him?
I would, absolutely. I would and people have asked if I'd ever challenge him to one-on-one because we both love basketball. But look, he towers over me and I wouldn't be complaining about an unfair advantage there, but maybe I'd do better playing H-O-R-S-E with him than one-on-one.
What about in a race? Could you beat the president?
I betcha I'd have more endurance. My one claim to fame in my own little internal running circle is a sub-four marathon. It wasn't necessarily a good running time, but it proves I have the endurance within me to at least gut it out and that is something. If you ever talk to my old coaches, they'd tell you, too. What I lacked in physical strength or skill I made up for in determination and endurance. So if it were a long race that required a lot of endurance, I'd win.
In Alaska or D.C.?
I'd like him to come to Alaska so he can see the beauty of this 49th state.
--Runner's World, August 09
#2 Post-Championship Strategy - Opportunity Lost
On the heals of just barely losing the NBA title Joe D was faced with Larry Brown, and(one year later)free agent Ben Wallace, flirting with other franchises. This on top of typical departures of supporting cast from championship teams (Okur, Williamson, James).
It was a tough spot to be in for sure. But when you barely miss winning a title you want to get better, not worse. Joe let his personal issue with Brown get in the way of bringing him back for another year. If not him, then another elite coach. Instead he hired the lackey and college buddy of one of the worst GM’s in the NBA – Kevin McHale. Flip Saunders was a terrible choice and proved to be a failure. The offense wasn’t any more efficient and the defense was far worse. It was a typical NBA retread hire and something that typically-bad NBA GM's do all the time.
After another near miss loss to the NBA champion Miami Heat, Dumars let Wallace walk, which was probably the only reasonable thing to do given the ridiculous contract…or was it? His replacement in the starting lineup was Antonio McDyess, whose game has aged better since. And while Dyce was a better player in a vacuum, consider circumstance. A better decision was to ignore common sense and do everything possible to try to win another title. Instead McDyess was promoted and Nazr Mohammed (and later a hobbled Chris Webber) were brought in for depth. Decline was a conscious decision.
That team didn’t need McDyess. He’s a nice player, but they needed Ben Wallace. Not a player who was very similar to the other forward (Sheed). Joe should have resigned Ben, even while he was obviously declining, and then used the mid-level to acquire an Eddie House / Ben Gordan type of instant offensive bench player with the mid-level exception. Or done the really smart thing and traded Darko after 2 years of incompetence for a piece that would put them over the top.
But Joe was determined to avoid a rebuilding situation so he tried to maintain on the cheap and instead put his attentions on the future, drafting Jason Maxiell and cutting the ties with Darko (a year or two too late) for a draft pick that would later become Rodney Stuckey - The only two significant young players on the current Pistons roster. These would be the last good player acquisitions Joe Dumars makes…
After this, things fall apart, but its important to remember the key philosophical mistake that occurred in 2005 and 2006. This was the end of the Piston’s team as title contenders. Joe sacrificed the title-shot for his practical philosophy and exacerbated the situation by making an incompetent coaching hire. He tried to get offense through coaching and sacrificed what got the franchise to where they were and what their fans identified with. As Brian Cook put it:
“Over the years, the character of the Pistons has been efficiency and length and defense and Eckstein-like grit.”
With Ben Wallace this was a blue collar team for a blue collar community. After 2006, not anymore...
On the heals of just barely losing the NBA title Joe D was faced with Larry Brown, and(one year later)free agent Ben Wallace, flirting with other franchises. This on top of typical departures of supporting cast from championship teams (Okur, Williamson, James).
It was a tough spot to be in for sure. But when you barely miss winning a title you want to get better, not worse. Joe let his personal issue with Brown get in the way of bringing him back for another year. If not him, then another elite coach. Instead he hired the lackey and college buddy of one of the worst GM’s in the NBA – Kevin McHale. Flip Saunders was a terrible choice and proved to be a failure. The offense wasn’t any more efficient and the defense was far worse. It was a typical NBA retread hire and something that typically-bad NBA GM's do all the time.
After another near miss loss to the NBA champion Miami Heat, Dumars let Wallace walk, which was probably the only reasonable thing to do given the ridiculous contract…or was it? His replacement in the starting lineup was Antonio McDyess, whose game has aged better since. And while Dyce was a better player in a vacuum, consider circumstance. A better decision was to ignore common sense and do everything possible to try to win another title. Instead McDyess was promoted and Nazr Mohammed (and later a hobbled Chris Webber) were brought in for depth. Decline was a conscious decision.
That team didn’t need McDyess. He’s a nice player, but they needed Ben Wallace. Not a player who was very similar to the other forward (Sheed). Joe should have resigned Ben, even while he was obviously declining, and then used the mid-level to acquire an Eddie House / Ben Gordan type of instant offensive bench player with the mid-level exception. Or done the really smart thing and traded Darko after 2 years of incompetence for a piece that would put them over the top.
But Joe was determined to avoid a rebuilding situation so he tried to maintain on the cheap and instead put his attentions on the future, drafting Jason Maxiell and cutting the ties with Darko (a year or two too late) for a draft pick that would later become Rodney Stuckey - The only two significant young players on the current Pistons roster. These would be the last good player acquisitions Joe Dumars makes…
After this, things fall apart, but its important to remember the key philosophical mistake that occurred in 2005 and 2006. This was the end of the Piston’s team as title contenders. Joe sacrificed the title-shot for his practical philosophy and exacerbated the situation by making an incompetent coaching hire. He tried to get offense through coaching and sacrificed what got the franchise to where they were and what their fans identified with. As Brian Cook put it:
“Over the years, the character of the Pistons has been efficiency and length and defense and Eckstein-like grit.”
With Ben Wallace this was a blue collar team for a blue collar community. After 2006, not anymore...
#1 Acquisitions Before 2005 Are Overrated.
Joe D built a reputation as a GM by seemingly unearthing all-stars like Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups out of nothing and opportunely taking the discarded players from other franchises (e.g. Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton). He also hit homeruns with a late first round pick (Tay Prince) and second rounder (Mehmet Okur).
The championship title of 2004 and near-title in 2005 on the heels of two brilliant coaching hires (first Rick Carlisle then the bold hiring of Larry Brown to bring the team over the top). But everyone knows that.
Whats less frequently discussed is the savvy moves he made along the way to build towards that. Chuck Atkins and Elden Cambell were good signings to build up, and take over the top, respectively. Michael Curry fit as a good role player. Good trades were made for Stackhouse, John Barry, and Cliff Robinson. Unarguably, Joe D took a franchise that was decimated by bad contracts and the departure of Grant Hill and took them to a title. He earned his reputation as a good GM by doing that. BUT....
He made some HUGE mistakes and got VERY lucky on the way. The result was as much luck as brilliance.
Random supporting cast: While he signed Curry, he cut Bobby Simmons. Bad call.
Drafting: Late hits (Okur, Prince) mixed with really awful early misses (Milicic, White, Cleaves.) With the opportunities he had, especially with Darko, his drafting has to be viewed as a failure.
Free Agent decisions: During the Grant Hill saga, Joe failed at his objective. He ended up signing Ben Wallace and Chucky Atkins instead. Even Joe would admit that that working out was essentially luck. It was his Plan B. He is also rumored to have courted Chris Webber strongly during this period. Would a preferred core of Webber and Hill have brought the team a title? Probably not.
Trades: The Sheed thing was pretty much a gift. The Blazers had several options but wanted to make sure he headed East and Atlanta was happy to help. It was an easy decision for a solid team that needed exactly the talent that Sheed provided to contend.
Joe was very very lucky his first plan failed and his backup plan worked out. He had some good luck come his way with each of the 5 core players on the championship team. He has common sense, and knows when to cut his losses. But for every good decision he made he also made a bad one and the Darko decisions casts a cloud over the whole era, from a managerial perspective.
Joe D built a reputation as a GM by seemingly unearthing all-stars like Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups out of nothing and opportunely taking the discarded players from other franchises (e.g. Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton). He also hit homeruns with a late first round pick (Tay Prince) and second rounder (Mehmet Okur).
The championship title of 2004 and near-title in 2005 on the heels of two brilliant coaching hires (first Rick Carlisle then the bold hiring of Larry Brown to bring the team over the top). But everyone knows that.
Whats less frequently discussed is the savvy moves he made along the way to build towards that. Chuck Atkins and Elden Cambell were good signings to build up, and take over the top, respectively. Michael Curry fit as a good role player. Good trades were made for Stackhouse, John Barry, and Cliff Robinson. Unarguably, Joe D took a franchise that was decimated by bad contracts and the departure of Grant Hill and took them to a title. He earned his reputation as a good GM by doing that. BUT....
He made some HUGE mistakes and got VERY lucky on the way. The result was as much luck as brilliance.
Random supporting cast: While he signed Curry, he cut Bobby Simmons. Bad call.
Drafting: Late hits (Okur, Prince) mixed with really awful early misses (Milicic, White, Cleaves.) With the opportunities he had, especially with Darko, his drafting has to be viewed as a failure.
Free Agent decisions: During the Grant Hill saga, Joe failed at his objective. He ended up signing Ben Wallace and Chucky Atkins instead. Even Joe would admit that that working out was essentially luck. It was his Plan B. He is also rumored to have courted Chris Webber strongly during this period. Would a preferred core of Webber and Hill have brought the team a title? Probably not.
Trades: The Sheed thing was pretty much a gift. The Blazers had several options but wanted to make sure he headed East and Atlanta was happy to help. It was an easy decision for a solid team that needed exactly the talent that Sheed provided to contend.
Joe was very very lucky his first plan failed and his backup plan worked out. He had some good luck come his way with each of the 5 core players on the championship team. He has common sense, and knows when to cut his losses. But for every good decision he made he also made a bad one and the Darko decisions casts a cloud over the whole era, from a managerial perspective.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
John Keuster. He's been an assistant under Larry Brown and Mike Brown, two of the better coaches in the NBA.
But you probably remember him from a few years earlier when he showed off his intellect to an audience far beyond the sports world.
My main concern is his ability to coach big men.
We'll see how Keuster does. I was hoping for for this guy:
But you probably remember him from a few years earlier when he showed off his intellect to an audience far beyond the sports world.
My main concern is his ability to coach big men.
We'll see how Keuster does. I was hoping for for this guy:
Monday, July 6, 2009
Sheed is going to sign with the Boston Celtics. One of my favorite NBA players goes to my least favorite team. The standard thinking is that veterans like Garnett, Pierce, and Allen will "keep him in line", which sounds sort of preposterous to me. Allen is a class act, I admit, and Pierce is a good natured guy, but KG is one of the biggest assholes in the league. More than anyone this side of Ricky Davis, he embodies classless behavior on the court. And this is supposed to help Sheed?
Anyway, I'm already sad in anticipating that once I get used to seeing Sheed in green I'll start to dislike him (like most of the NBA). One of the nice thing about being a Blazer and Piston fan is that Sheed has almost always been on one of the teams I root for. I wish he had signed with the Spurs or Magic instead. Ah well...
Anyway, I'm already sad in anticipating that once I get used to seeing Sheed in green I'll start to dislike him (like most of the NBA). One of the nice thing about being a Blazer and Piston fan is that Sheed has almost always been on one of the teams I root for. I wish he had signed with the Spurs or Magic instead. Ah well...
I stumbled across a toy museum this weekend. In the sports wing they had quite a few NBA toys. Most of these were relatively recent--the stars of today if not necessarily the same teams. Vince Carter was on the Raptors still for instance. There were some all-time players too like the Dream, The Glide, and MJ.
But the one that killed me was a none-t00-distant relic of the Blazer's past. Seabass!
But the one that killed me was a none-t00-distant relic of the Blazer's past. Seabass!
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Now the Hedo Turkoglu has turned the Blazers down, the team is left with a lot of options for their remaining salary cap space. None of them fit quite as well as Plan A, but there are probably better overall values available. Here is John Hollinger’s opinion on the Blazers:
The second paragraph hits on why a signing this year is pretty important. OTOH, you can always resign your own players then try to work a sign and trade. Its just a little more complicated that way. Anyway, here are my thoughts on some of the significant free agent options and how they could fit with the Blazers:
FORWARDS
Lamar Odom (F) Odom is probably a waste of time, as nice as plucking away a key player from the Lakers is. Now that they added Artest, the Lakers are a lot tougher and IMO, that swings the head-to-head battle in their favor. The window may be closed for now in the west for the Blazers regardless of what they do. But, its worth trying to drive up the price, if nothing else.
David Lee (F) He’d fit in nicely as a 3rd or 4th big man and could play some SF. He’d fill the rebounding void left by LA, and he’s a nice personality fit as an unselfish team player. But what else is there? To pay 10 million for a rebounder with mediocre defensive skills doesn’t make any sense when you have Oden and Przybilla. You don’t want to pay role players this much, even if they’re very good role players. This would be a lot like Detroit’s Ben Gordon signing.
Shawn Marion (F) A nice fit into the lineup as an athletic veteran rebounder, but a bad fit for the style of play and personality. I’d throw a 2-year contract at him later in the summer if nothing else comes to fruition. See if it works and deal him if it doesn’t.
Marvin Williams (F) This is the guy I’d throw an offer at if upgrading SF is the goal. He’s a restricted free agent which means you’re stuck waiting 10 days while the other team decides if they want to match or not. The guy is very talented, versatile, tall, athletic, with good range on his jumper. He’d fit nicely I think. If the hawks match…
Josh Childress (SF) Depending on how bad he wants to leave Greece, the Hawks aren’t going to tie up that much money for a backup to Williams. At this point you’re getting to guys who aren’t really significant upgrades to Outlaw/Batum.
GUARDS
Mike Bibby (PG) I like the idea of Bibby as a short-term fix. Say, a 2-year contract. Won’t help the D any but he’s a clutch scorer and great outside shooter.
Andre Miller (PG) I mentioned this as Plan B in my previous post but I actually think it’s a terrible idea. He doesn’t have the outside shot or defensive speed I want, so I’d avoid paying him a lot of money.
Ramon Sessions (PG) : I like the idea of trying to sign Sessions. He’s young and a good passer. But anything reasonable will be matched by Milwaukee, who just shed a lot of payroll. Waste of time.
Nate Robinson (G) It would be fun to have a Pacific Northwest guy here, I guess. He’s a change of pace from Blake, but I’m not sure he brings all that much to the table compared to Bayless.
Verdict:
Pass on all these guys. Drive up the price on Odom but don’t sign him. Make a bid on Williams perhaps. Then go get Hinrich and then see what bargains shake out of the free agent class. Stick with the youth plan at every spot beside PG. If you can sign someone like Kleiza later in the summer, go for it. A few other potential bargains out there, talented young players that might be worth a shot at F, especially if Outlaw is dealt: Rodney Carney, Hakim Warrick, Jamario Moon.
they can … take comfort in the fact that they control the free-agent game until they make their next move. Portland might want to go after Sessions, a good young point guard who fills their need for a second quality pick-and-roll player -- albeit at a different position than Turkoglu.
They may also decide to punt on free agency and hope to play the trade market, but that's a risky strategy. If they don't get something done by the trade deadline, the opportunity will basically be gone forever because next year extensions for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge will kick in, and it's not clear that somebody will come available who fits what they need.
They might also try to make a long-shot run at Lamar Odom, perhaps the best player left on the board and one who, like Turkoglu, could provide another offensive creator while swinging between the two forward spots. But the rainy weather and a location 90 minutes inland don't exactly jibe with Odom's stated preference to live on the beach. The most likely outcome of an Odom pursuit would be driving up the price for the rival Lakers.
Alternatively, the Blazers could try to target a Sixth Man shot creator like New York's Nate Robinson, or make a run at Philadelphia's Andre Miller, the latter not a great fit in my opinion, but a possibility given their need at the point.\
The second paragraph hits on why a signing this year is pretty important. OTOH, you can always resign your own players then try to work a sign and trade. Its just a little more complicated that way. Anyway, here are my thoughts on some of the significant free agent options and how they could fit with the Blazers:
FORWARDS
Lamar Odom (F) Odom is probably a waste of time, as nice as plucking away a key player from the Lakers is. Now that they added Artest, the Lakers are a lot tougher and IMO, that swings the head-to-head battle in their favor. The window may be closed for now in the west for the Blazers regardless of what they do. But, its worth trying to drive up the price, if nothing else.
David Lee (F) He’d fit in nicely as a 3rd or 4th big man and could play some SF. He’d fill the rebounding void left by LA, and he’s a nice personality fit as an unselfish team player. But what else is there? To pay 10 million for a rebounder with mediocre defensive skills doesn’t make any sense when you have Oden and Przybilla. You don’t want to pay role players this much, even if they’re very good role players. This would be a lot like Detroit’s Ben Gordon signing.
Shawn Marion (F) A nice fit into the lineup as an athletic veteran rebounder, but a bad fit for the style of play and personality. I’d throw a 2-year contract at him later in the summer if nothing else comes to fruition. See if it works and deal him if it doesn’t.
Marvin Williams (F) This is the guy I’d throw an offer at if upgrading SF is the goal. He’s a restricted free agent which means you’re stuck waiting 10 days while the other team decides if they want to match or not. The guy is very talented, versatile, tall, athletic, with good range on his jumper. He’d fit nicely I think. If the hawks match…
Josh Childress (SF) Depending on how bad he wants to leave Greece, the Hawks aren’t going to tie up that much money for a backup to Williams. At this point you’re getting to guys who aren’t really significant upgrades to Outlaw/Batum.
GUARDS
Mike Bibby (PG) I like the idea of Bibby as a short-term fix. Say, a 2-year contract. Won’t help the D any but he’s a clutch scorer and great outside shooter.
Andre Miller (PG) I mentioned this as Plan B in my previous post but I actually think it’s a terrible idea. He doesn’t have the outside shot or defensive speed I want, so I’d avoid paying him a lot of money.
Ramon Sessions (PG) : I like the idea of trying to sign Sessions. He’s young and a good passer. But anything reasonable will be matched by Milwaukee, who just shed a lot of payroll. Waste of time.
Nate Robinson (G) It would be fun to have a Pacific Northwest guy here, I guess. He’s a change of pace from Blake, but I’m not sure he brings all that much to the table compared to Bayless.
Verdict:
Pass on all these guys. Drive up the price on Odom but don’t sign him. Make a bid on Williams perhaps. Then go get Hinrich and then see what bargains shake out of the free agent class. Stick with the youth plan at every spot beside PG. If you can sign someone like Kleiza later in the summer, go for it. A few other potential bargains out there, talented young players that might be worth a shot at F, especially if Outlaw is dealt: Rodney Carney, Hakim Warrick, Jamario Moon.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
First off, I need to start off with some assumptions and background.
1. I believe the Pistons should rebuild from scratch. Rebuilding while winning rarely, if ever, works. Teams that do it have a superstar that they can build off of. The Pistons do not. What they are trying to do is stupid and a waste of time. But their GM (Joe Dumars) seems pretty set on it, and while he is prone to some pretty crazy mood swings (especially coach hirings and young players), I’ll assume he’s going to stick to this philosophy. So, dumping everyone and rebuilding with young players over several years (Blazers and Thunder model) isn’t considered a viable option.
2. Most free agents aren’t worth signing. They are generally overpaid at the moment and end up hamstringing franchises. Doesn’t it seem like teams want to get rid of about 70% of their non-rookie, non-franchise player contracts? GMs are constantly one-upping each other to see who can be more stupid in spending money. There are bargains to be had but paying role players and obviously flawed pseudo-stars 7 figures annually is not a good idea. I’d punt on this free agent class and hope you can attract some people in 2010. Its risky, but you don’t win championships without taking risks. And again, Joe D sees things differently. He’s going to spend his hard earned Iverson/Wallace money on this years free agent crop.
So those are my philosophical constraints created by a GM who lately seems utterly clueless. You have entrenched starters at 1,2,3 in Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince and you’ve just drafted 3 SF/PF types who are slated to backup Prince and a PF. There are two gaping holes in the roster in the frontcourt created by the departure of Sheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess (though Kwame Brown and Jason Maxiell provide a pair of serviceable backups for the season). You want to add talent this season to improve on last years record (#8 seed in the east). Title contention isn’t really the goal, at least not in this season. Consistent winning is. With that stated objective, here we go:
Team Needs
1. Two front court starters at least one of which can rebound and one of which can score (though they don’t necessarily each have to do both.)
2. A scorer who can create their own shot
3. Overall talent / star potential
4. Head Coach
Notice, nothing on that list suggests signing a short SG who loves to chuck it. And yet…Ben Gordon is a Piston. And so is Charlie Villanueva.
On Ben Gordon, I’ve been naysaying him since he was at UConn and I’ve been mostly wrong. But I’m going to keep doing it anyway. Yes, he can score, and when he is on, like he was against Boston he is an elite player. But he’s a problem on the defensive end most of the time and he’s a problem when he’s missing shots. Sure he lit up Boston this year, but he also got lit up by Ray Allen who suddenly looked like the best player in Green after being a fourth wheel last season. This is a career backup who is getting paid $11M a year to be a backup to a guy making $12M a year. They are similar players. Hamilton is a better (though still not great) defender and more efficient, Gordon has better range and can create his own shot better. But they’re both shooting guards who shoot a lot. How does this make sense? Particularly when paired with a scoring PG and PF.
The signing Charlie Villanueva is better. While I’m not a big fan of his game (shoots too much, doesn’t rebound or defend enough), he is young and can develop into a star. Paying $7M annually for a 6’11 PF who can score from 3 doesn’t seem like such a bad idea. It fits the Joe Dumars model of player acquisition – getting a young talented player who has bounced around because of some perceived character flaws (e.g. Stackhouse, Hamilton, Billups, Wallace). Hopefully he isn’t as stupid as his reputation makes him out to be. This is the guy that Milwaukee seemed pretty glad to get rid of. I have some optimism he can turn it around. He’s a little like a cross between Rasheed and Lamar Odom minus 40% of the basketball intelligence. At 24 years old, a gamble worth taking.
I would have done something else (waited for Free Agent bargains to reveal themselves, dealt Prince, gone after Williams or Kleiza or maybe Felton instead of Grodon) But anyway. Whats done is done.
So, assuming those 2 signings your lineup looks like:
Starters: Stuckey/Hamilton/Prince/Villanueva/Brown
Supersub: Gordon
Rotation subs: Maxiell and ugh….
I guess one of the rookie SFs?
As much as I like the UConn alumni theme going here (Maybe we can find a way to get Rudy Gay, Ray Allen, Emeka Okafor, Caron Butler, Josh Boone, and Hilton Armstrong onto the roster too) this is a supremely flawed team with a gaping deficiency on defense and rebounding. It’s a team that traded Wallace/McDyess for Gordon/Villanueva – a major downgrade from an 8th seed. There HAS to be another deal in the works here right? RIGHT!?
I think the pistons should trade to dump Rip Hamilton and Tay Prince. I thought this before the two free agent signing but its even more pressing now. They are nice players, and I like both personally a lot, but really, they are closer to mediocre starters than all-stars. Prince is completely incapable of even putting up a fight against their primary division rival – Lebron James, and Hamilton isn’t a good fit for a slashing PG like Stuckey, not to mention the conflict with Ben Gordon. Building around this duo is idiotic. They belong as complimentary parts on contending teams. Even though Joe D has repeatedly stated he doesn’t want to deal them, I’m going to assume the current roster is too flawed and a deal is going to be made.
So moving forward from the Villanueva/Gordon signings, here is my blueprint for the Pistons:
Trade Richard Hamilton for a center. I actually like the paring of Stuckey and Gordon. Stuckey needs to play beside a shooter since he’s more of a slasher. And he’s pretty big for a PG so he can try to guard some of the 2s that Gordon cannot. Aaron Afflolo is a competent backup SG and Will Bynum is OK at PG. Hamilton is not as good as Prince and is much easier to replace with Gordon on the roster. Unfortunately he is also harder to trade because he just signed a 3 year extension for 12.65M per season.
Here is a trade that makes sense:
Rip Hamilton for Elton Brand
Why: Both guys are overpaid and have backups (Gordon/Speights) that may be just as good or players that provide redundant skills. The 76ers looked better without Elton Brand. It helps both teams lineups. Phil: Miller/Hamilton/Iguodala/Young/Dalembert. Det: Stuckey/Gordon/Prince/Villanueva/Brand.
Why not: Philly may be comfortable with its wing players (Iguodala and T.Young). They may be being honest when they say they don’t want to trade the guy they purportedly signed last season to be the franchise player. Brand is an injury risk and probably not an elite player. His salary also escalates through 2012-2013, one more season than Hamilton’s whose does not.
Other deals out there may be possible too for centers who are rumored to be on the trading block. Rip for:
1. Sam Dalembert
The other front court player in Philly. Not as good as Brand overall but a different sort of player, with a shorter and cheaper contract (closer match to Hamilton)
2. Tyson Chandler
His contract is similar to Hamilton’s but for 2 less years. and he can be had for almost nothing. The question is, does NO want Hamilton? He seems like a great fit with CP3 but they’d have to take on MORE salary to do it. If Detroit took on Daniels or Peterson’s contracts for Kwame Brown, I think you’d have a deal.
3. Chris Kaman
Another bad contract similar to Hamilton’s. Kaman might be a stiff. The Clippers have three centers, though and probably would be glad to deal him. The issue with them is they may not want to take playing time from Eric Gordon
4. Carlos Boozer
Similar situation to New Orleans. Boozer is an expiring contract and redundant if they resign Paul Millsap. They’d love to deal him to avoid paying a luxury tax, but for what? Hard to get value for an expiring contract. It demends on what happends with Paul Millsap, but there is some potential here. Rip Hamilton seems like a good fit in their system and with Derron Williams. Would the Jazz take on his contract?
I’ve looked at every roster and can’t see any other situation where Rip Hamilton makes sense combined with a logical gain for Detroit, though maybe something with a free agent like Verajao, Gortat, or Lee could be worked out via a sign-and-trade.
Once that’s done I’d look at trading Tay Prince to a contender (e.g. to Portland for Outlaw, Webster, and Freedman), but that gets more complicated and depends on what happens with Hamilton.
So, even though the Piston’s have already done a lot this offseason, they need to do more.
Blueprint Summary
1. Trade Rip Hamilton for Brand (or another center)
2. Trade Tay Prince for younger talent, preferably someone who can defend Lebron.
3. Hire a coach
1. I believe the Pistons should rebuild from scratch. Rebuilding while winning rarely, if ever, works. Teams that do it have a superstar that they can build off of. The Pistons do not. What they are trying to do is stupid and a waste of time. But their GM (Joe Dumars) seems pretty set on it, and while he is prone to some pretty crazy mood swings (especially coach hirings and young players), I’ll assume he’s going to stick to this philosophy. So, dumping everyone and rebuilding with young players over several years (Blazers and Thunder model) isn’t considered a viable option.
2. Most free agents aren’t worth signing. They are generally overpaid at the moment and end up hamstringing franchises. Doesn’t it seem like teams want to get rid of about 70% of their non-rookie, non-franchise player contracts? GMs are constantly one-upping each other to see who can be more stupid in spending money. There are bargains to be had but paying role players and obviously flawed pseudo-stars 7 figures annually is not a good idea. I’d punt on this free agent class and hope you can attract some people in 2010. Its risky, but you don’t win championships without taking risks. And again, Joe D sees things differently. He’s going to spend his hard earned Iverson/Wallace money on this years free agent crop.
So those are my philosophical constraints created by a GM who lately seems utterly clueless. You have entrenched starters at 1,2,3 in Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince and you’ve just drafted 3 SF/PF types who are slated to backup Prince and a PF. There are two gaping holes in the roster in the frontcourt created by the departure of Sheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess (though Kwame Brown and Jason Maxiell provide a pair of serviceable backups for the season). You want to add talent this season to improve on last years record (#8 seed in the east). Title contention isn’t really the goal, at least not in this season. Consistent winning is. With that stated objective, here we go:
Team Needs
1. Two front court starters at least one of which can rebound and one of which can score (though they don’t necessarily each have to do both.)
2. A scorer who can create their own shot
3. Overall talent / star potential
4. Head Coach
Notice, nothing on that list suggests signing a short SG who loves to chuck it. And yet…Ben Gordon is a Piston. And so is Charlie Villanueva.
On Ben Gordon, I’ve been naysaying him since he was at UConn and I’ve been mostly wrong. But I’m going to keep doing it anyway. Yes, he can score, and when he is on, like he was against Boston he is an elite player. But he’s a problem on the defensive end most of the time and he’s a problem when he’s missing shots. Sure he lit up Boston this year, but he also got lit up by Ray Allen who suddenly looked like the best player in Green after being a fourth wheel last season. This is a career backup who is getting paid $11M a year to be a backup to a guy making $12M a year. They are similar players. Hamilton is a better (though still not great) defender and more efficient, Gordon has better range and can create his own shot better. But they’re both shooting guards who shoot a lot. How does this make sense? Particularly when paired with a scoring PG and PF.
The signing Charlie Villanueva is better. While I’m not a big fan of his game (shoots too much, doesn’t rebound or defend enough), he is young and can develop into a star. Paying $7M annually for a 6’11 PF who can score from 3 doesn’t seem like such a bad idea. It fits the Joe Dumars model of player acquisition – getting a young talented player who has bounced around because of some perceived character flaws (e.g. Stackhouse, Hamilton, Billups, Wallace). Hopefully he isn’t as stupid as his reputation makes him out to be. This is the guy that Milwaukee seemed pretty glad to get rid of. I have some optimism he can turn it around. He’s a little like a cross between Rasheed and Lamar Odom minus 40% of the basketball intelligence. At 24 years old, a gamble worth taking.
I would have done something else (waited for Free Agent bargains to reveal themselves, dealt Prince, gone after Williams or Kleiza or maybe Felton instead of Grodon) But anyway. Whats done is done.
So, assuming those 2 signings your lineup looks like:
Starters: Stuckey/Hamilton/Prince/Villanueva/Brown
Supersub: Gordon
Rotation subs: Maxiell and ugh….
I guess one of the rookie SFs?
As much as I like the UConn alumni theme going here (Maybe we can find a way to get Rudy Gay, Ray Allen, Emeka Okafor, Caron Butler, Josh Boone, and Hilton Armstrong onto the roster too) this is a supremely flawed team with a gaping deficiency on defense and rebounding. It’s a team that traded Wallace/McDyess for Gordon/Villanueva – a major downgrade from an 8th seed. There HAS to be another deal in the works here right? RIGHT!?
I think the pistons should trade to dump Rip Hamilton and Tay Prince. I thought this before the two free agent signing but its even more pressing now. They are nice players, and I like both personally a lot, but really, they are closer to mediocre starters than all-stars. Prince is completely incapable of even putting up a fight against their primary division rival – Lebron James, and Hamilton isn’t a good fit for a slashing PG like Stuckey, not to mention the conflict with Ben Gordon. Building around this duo is idiotic. They belong as complimentary parts on contending teams. Even though Joe D has repeatedly stated he doesn’t want to deal them, I’m going to assume the current roster is too flawed and a deal is going to be made.
So moving forward from the Villanueva/Gordon signings, here is my blueprint for the Pistons:
Trade Richard Hamilton for a center. I actually like the paring of Stuckey and Gordon. Stuckey needs to play beside a shooter since he’s more of a slasher. And he’s pretty big for a PG so he can try to guard some of the 2s that Gordon cannot. Aaron Afflolo is a competent backup SG and Will Bynum is OK at PG. Hamilton is not as good as Prince and is much easier to replace with Gordon on the roster. Unfortunately he is also harder to trade because he just signed a 3 year extension for 12.65M per season.
Here is a trade that makes sense:
Rip Hamilton for Elton Brand
Why: Both guys are overpaid and have backups (Gordon/Speights) that may be just as good or players that provide redundant skills. The 76ers looked better without Elton Brand. It helps both teams lineups. Phil: Miller/Hamilton/Iguodala/Young/Dalembert. Det: Stuckey/Gordon/Prince/Villanueva/Brand.
Why not: Philly may be comfortable with its wing players (Iguodala and T.Young). They may be being honest when they say they don’t want to trade the guy they purportedly signed last season to be the franchise player. Brand is an injury risk and probably not an elite player. His salary also escalates through 2012-2013, one more season than Hamilton’s whose does not.
Other deals out there may be possible too for centers who are rumored to be on the trading block. Rip for:
1. Sam Dalembert
The other front court player in Philly. Not as good as Brand overall but a different sort of player, with a shorter and cheaper contract (closer match to Hamilton)
2. Tyson Chandler
His contract is similar to Hamilton’s but for 2 less years. and he can be had for almost nothing. The question is, does NO want Hamilton? He seems like a great fit with CP3 but they’d have to take on MORE salary to do it. If Detroit took on Daniels or Peterson’s contracts for Kwame Brown, I think you’d have a deal.
3. Chris Kaman
Another bad contract similar to Hamilton’s. Kaman might be a stiff. The Clippers have three centers, though and probably would be glad to deal him. The issue with them is they may not want to take playing time from Eric Gordon
4. Carlos Boozer
Similar situation to New Orleans. Boozer is an expiring contract and redundant if they resign Paul Millsap. They’d love to deal him to avoid paying a luxury tax, but for what? Hard to get value for an expiring contract. It demends on what happends with Paul Millsap, but there is some potential here. Rip Hamilton seems like a good fit in their system and with Derron Williams. Would the Jazz take on his contract?
I’ve looked at every roster and can’t see any other situation where Rip Hamilton makes sense combined with a logical gain for Detroit, though maybe something with a free agent like Verajao, Gortat, or Lee could be worked out via a sign-and-trade.
Once that’s done I’d look at trading Tay Prince to a contender (e.g. to Portland for Outlaw, Webster, and Freedman), but that gets more complicated and depends on what happens with Hamilton.
So, even though the Piston’s have already done a lot this offseason, they need to do more.
Blueprint Summary
1. Trade Rip Hamilton for Brand (or another center)
2. Trade Tay Prince for younger talent, preferably someone who can defend Lebron.
3. Hire a coach
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
1. Fire Joe Dumars.
He is an idiot.
2. Do it before 7/8 so those contracts offered to Villanueva and Gordon can be rescinded.
3. Try to trade away Hamilton and Prince
4. Start Rebuilding
5. Hire Alan Trammell...errr Mateen Cleaves...errr sorry I get my Detroit Sports PR moves mixed up...Bill Laimbeer! Thats it! Hire THE Bad Boy as head coach.
6. Bring in Isiah Thomas to consult on draft selections.
7. Hire Vinnie Johnson and Rick Mahorn as assistants.
He is an idiot.
2. Do it before 7/8 so those contracts offered to Villanueva and Gordon can be rescinded.
3. Try to trade away Hamilton and Prince
4. Start Rebuilding
5. Hire Alan Trammell...errr Mateen Cleaves...errr sorry I get my Detroit Sports PR moves mixed up...Bill Laimbeer! Thats it! Hire THE Bad Boy as head coach.
6. Bring in Isiah Thomas to consult on draft selections.
7. Hire Vinnie Johnson and Rick Mahorn as assistants.
First off, the Blazers have to make a decision. Do you go for the title in 2010, or do you keep up the gradual ascent by accumulating young cheap talent into the roster? Some might argue the two aren't mutually exclusive, but I'd say the development of young players is hindered when they aren't on the court.
With the rumored pursuit of Hedo Turkoglu I'd say the Blazers are going for it. As they should, IMO. Pretty soon Roy, Aldridge and maybe Oden will be sucking up most of the teams cap space and you won't have so much flexibility. Also, they really weren't far off. I honestly think they could have and maybe would have beaten the Lakers (as I outlined here.) With the Lakers probably losing some pieces this offseason (either Ariza or Odom) and being a little less driven next year, no other western conference team looks like all that much of a challenge.
So, how do you get the Blazers better NOW?
The biggest needs:
1. Defense at PG
2. A second offensive creater to complement Roy
3. Outside shooting
4. Experience
Chauncey Billups would be the ideal acquisition for this team, but now its too late. The likely acquisition is Hedo Turkoglu.
Hedo is available and addresses #2-4 very well. The primary concern is you're committing somewhere around $10M per season to him for 4 or 5 years. I guess the Blazers will be over the cap starting next season anyway, so Paul Allen's wallet makes this a non-issue (It's nice to be a Blazers fan). The second issue is that he takes playing time away from Batum (who is a better defensive player), but we saw Batum's role diminish in the playoffs. The Blazers clearly view him as a backup and not the solution to winning now. He'll have to wait...
Hedo is streaky and a little slow footed. Roy is steady and Hedo can trade off the primary scoring role depending on who has the hot hand. He's a good 2nd option for creating offense. Defensively, with Przybilla or Oden behind him he shouldn't be a defensive liability. Paired with Aldridge, that makes for a very long front line, not unlike what got Orlando to the finals. Overall, it would be a pretty excellent addition.
That would leave one major hole in the starting lineup: PG. While Steve Blake is an ideal team player he has a huge problem stopping opposing point guards and the west is loaded with all the best ones (Nash, Parker, Paul, Williams, Billups, etc.) If he was the backup, with Bayless as the developing 3rd guard and occassional sparkplug you'd have an ideal situation.
With Hedo taking up the remainder of the Blazer's cap space the options for a starter have to come from either a trade or the mid-level exemption (i.e. getting paid a low level salary of under $5M annually). There's a few free agents out there who could be aquired through a sign-and trade scenario:
Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby are the big names available at PG.
Miller is a solid passer and good scorer. He'd be a good fit if Turkoglu wasn't coming but with Hedo here, thats too many ballhandlers. Anyway, he's not a good fit with Nate McMillan's methodical offensive style and he'll be quite expensive.
Kidd, same thing as Miller but older. Apparently he has a a 3-point shot now, so offensively that would be great but he's probably ticketed for elsewhere according to his rumored interests (i.e. probably doesn't want to live in Portland). He's somewhat of a defensive liability anyway.
Bibby, like Kidd is older and a little slow footed. He is an excellent outside shooter . He's a proven and experienced scorer. He sounds like a guy without a team for now and might be available for the mid-level without a long-term commitment. But, he's always been a terrible defender (from the Steve Nash school of I'll score 30 but you get to too...ahh fond memories of duels with Sam Cassel) and its only gotten worse with age. Lets call him Plan B.
The ideal fit in a Hedo-Roy-Aldridge led Blazer lineup is a team-oriented PG who excels at defense and knocks down the 3. He doesn't have to drive too much or need the ball very much. Basically you want a version of Steve Blake that can play great D. With Billups unavailable, the perfect fit is .... Kirk Hinrich.
Hinrich shoots 38-40% from 3 (thats good), he is one of the best defenders at the position (Its far from science, but this chatroom is fairly consistent on who the best are.), and he doesn't need the ball (he's had versatile roles from starter to backup, point guard to off guard, also, his free throw attempts are really low - reflecting how infrequently he drives) and he's responsible with the ball (a strong AS/TO ratio throughout his career.) Perfect.
So whats the catch? He'd have to be acquired via a trade.
However, the rumors are the Bulls want to do that. His salary his high (though not ridiculously so) but more importantly, the Bulls are trying to resign Ben Gordon (a SG) on a team that already has its franchise player at PG, plus a pair of wing scorers in Luol Deng and John Salmons, not to mention drafting a SF/PF. If the Bulls resign Gordon they'll certainly want to move Hinrich. If they don't, they may deal him anyway.
What can the Blazers offer for Hinrich? Two out of these three contracts would fit well for a trade (after Turkoglu is signed): Blake, Webster, Outlaw. Blake and Outlaw if they want to avoid salary obligations (both expire after the season.) Webster and Blake if they want to strength the backcourt. Webster and Outlaw if they want to maximize talent. The Blazers could include a draft pick (past or future) to further entice the Bulls. The point is: its very feasible.
So the Turkoglu and Hinrich acquisition results in:
Starters: Hinrich/Roy/Turkoglu/Aldridge/Przybilla
Rotation Bench: Fernandez, Batum, Oden
Support Bench: Bayless and whoever is leftover from the Blake/Webster/Outlaw trio plus some minimum-salaried big man to serve as Oden insurance.
Thats a pretty strong roster and one that would be favored, in my opinion at least, to come out of the west. Plus, you'd have the only recipe I've seen that can defeat Lebron (a tall physical wing paired with a tall interior defense : see Boston and Orlando.)
As a side benefit, Blazers fans like white people and foreigners so happy day. And Turkoglu will help the Blazers strengthen their ugliest team in the NBA designation.
Blueprint Summary:
1. Sign Hedo Turkoglu
2. Trade for Kurt Hinrich (giving up Outlaw, Webster, and a 1st round pick)
3. Find a backup PF/C for the veteran minimum.
Get it done KP. Oh, and don't let Hedo's agent force you into bidding against yourself. If the Magic match a fat contract for Hedo, let them.
With the rumored pursuit of Hedo Turkoglu I'd say the Blazers are going for it. As they should, IMO. Pretty soon Roy, Aldridge and maybe Oden will be sucking up most of the teams cap space and you won't have so much flexibility. Also, they really weren't far off. I honestly think they could have and maybe would have beaten the Lakers (as I outlined here.) With the Lakers probably losing some pieces this offseason (either Ariza or Odom) and being a little less driven next year, no other western conference team looks like all that much of a challenge.
So, how do you get the Blazers better NOW?
The biggest needs:
1. Defense at PG
2. A second offensive creater to complement Roy
3. Outside shooting
4. Experience
Chauncey Billups would be the ideal acquisition for this team, but now its too late. The likely acquisition is Hedo Turkoglu.
Hedo is available and addresses #2-4 very well. The primary concern is you're committing somewhere around $10M per season to him for 4 or 5 years. I guess the Blazers will be over the cap starting next season anyway, so Paul Allen's wallet makes this a non-issue (It's nice to be a Blazers fan). The second issue is that he takes playing time away from Batum (who is a better defensive player), but we saw Batum's role diminish in the playoffs. The Blazers clearly view him as a backup and not the solution to winning now. He'll have to wait...
Hedo is streaky and a little slow footed. Roy is steady and Hedo can trade off the primary scoring role depending on who has the hot hand. He's a good 2nd option for creating offense. Defensively, with Przybilla or Oden behind him he shouldn't be a defensive liability. Paired with Aldridge, that makes for a very long front line, not unlike what got Orlando to the finals. Overall, it would be a pretty excellent addition.
That would leave one major hole in the starting lineup: PG. While Steve Blake is an ideal team player he has a huge problem stopping opposing point guards and the west is loaded with all the best ones (Nash, Parker, Paul, Williams, Billups, etc.) If he was the backup, with Bayless as the developing 3rd guard and occassional sparkplug you'd have an ideal situation.
With Hedo taking up the remainder of the Blazer's cap space the options for a starter have to come from either a trade or the mid-level exemption (i.e. getting paid a low level salary of under $5M annually). There's a few free agents out there who could be aquired through a sign-and trade scenario:
Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby are the big names available at PG.
Miller is a solid passer and good scorer. He'd be a good fit if Turkoglu wasn't coming but with Hedo here, thats too many ballhandlers. Anyway, he's not a good fit with Nate McMillan's methodical offensive style and he'll be quite expensive.
Kidd, same thing as Miller but older. Apparently he has a a 3-point shot now, so offensively that would be great but he's probably ticketed for elsewhere according to his rumored interests (i.e. probably doesn't want to live in Portland). He's somewhat of a defensive liability anyway.
Bibby, like Kidd is older and a little slow footed. He is an excellent outside shooter . He's a proven and experienced scorer. He sounds like a guy without a team for now and might be available for the mid-level without a long-term commitment. But, he's always been a terrible defender (from the Steve Nash school of I'll score 30 but you get to too...ahh fond memories of duels with Sam Cassel) and its only gotten worse with age. Lets call him Plan B.
The ideal fit in a Hedo-Roy-Aldridge led Blazer lineup is a team-oriented PG who excels at defense and knocks down the 3. He doesn't have to drive too much or need the ball very much. Basically you want a version of Steve Blake that can play great D. With Billups unavailable, the perfect fit is .... Kirk Hinrich.
Hinrich shoots 38-40% from 3 (thats good), he is one of the best defenders at the position (Its far from science, but this chatroom is fairly consistent on who the best are.), and he doesn't need the ball (he's had versatile roles from starter to backup, point guard to off guard, also, his free throw attempts are really low - reflecting how infrequently he drives) and he's responsible with the ball (a strong AS/TO ratio throughout his career.) Perfect.
So whats the catch? He'd have to be acquired via a trade.
However, the rumors are the Bulls want to do that. His salary his high (though not ridiculously so) but more importantly, the Bulls are trying to resign Ben Gordon (a SG) on a team that already has its franchise player at PG, plus a pair of wing scorers in Luol Deng and John Salmons, not to mention drafting a SF/PF. If the Bulls resign Gordon they'll certainly want to move Hinrich. If they don't, they may deal him anyway.
What can the Blazers offer for Hinrich? Two out of these three contracts would fit well for a trade (after Turkoglu is signed): Blake, Webster, Outlaw. Blake and Outlaw if they want to avoid salary obligations (both expire after the season.) Webster and Blake if they want to strength the backcourt. Webster and Outlaw if they want to maximize talent. The Blazers could include a draft pick (past or future) to further entice the Bulls. The point is: its very feasible.
So the Turkoglu and Hinrich acquisition results in:
Starters: Hinrich/Roy/Turkoglu/Aldridge/Przybilla
Rotation Bench: Fernandez, Batum, Oden
Support Bench: Bayless and whoever is leftover from the Blake/Webster/Outlaw trio plus some minimum-salaried big man to serve as Oden insurance.
Thats a pretty strong roster and one that would be favored, in my opinion at least, to come out of the west. Plus, you'd have the only recipe I've seen that can defeat Lebron (a tall physical wing paired with a tall interior defense : see Boston and Orlando.)
As a side benefit, Blazers fans like white people and foreigners so happy day. And Turkoglu will help the Blazers strengthen their ugliest team in the NBA designation.
Blueprint Summary:
1. Sign Hedo Turkoglu
2. Trade for Kurt Hinrich (giving up Outlaw, Webster, and a 1st round pick)
3. Find a backup PF/C for the veteran minimum.
Get it done KP. Oh, and don't let Hedo's agent force you into bidding against yourself. If the Magic match a fat contract for Hedo, let them.
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