Saturday, June 27, 2009
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
My top 10:
1. Griffin – think he’ll be good but not sure about his interior D. Doesn’t have the length to be a good shot blocker. But that quickness should make him an elite scorer.
2. Curry – the shooting makes him the only other sure thing in the lotto
3. Rubio – If you can play pro ball and hang with Chris Paul at that age you’re worth the risk involved.
4. Evans – Should be able to score right away. The rest should come.
5. Blair – not sure what the upside is but I think he can play PF right away because of rebounding and shot blocking
6. Clark – I like the upside
7. Lawson – Sure thing. Maybe not a star but can be a backup at worst.
8. Thabeet – I don’t see him being any better than Ratliff. And he could be much worse. Still you know he can do some things.
9./10. Hill & Daye – Haven’t watched either but they sound like they have a shot of panning out into quality players.
Guys I would not draft:
Jrue Holiday – Yeah, he’s big for a PG but he didn’t display those kind of skills. I think people hope hes kind of like Westbrook, but I haven’t seen it.
BJ Mullens – waste of time
Tyler Hansbrough –obvious.
Omri Casspi – mmm foreign wings rarely pan out unless they can shoot
Jon Brockman
Guys I would draft outside of the lotto:
W. Ellington, D. Green, G. Henderson, T.Williams (Proven NCAA wings who can shoot and play D are legit athletes – (Aaron Afflalo types)
Maynor (just missed the top 10)
Guys that are worth a shot but risky:
DeRozen, Budinger
Guys I’m unsure about:
Every other PG (Teague, Flynn, Jennings, etc.). They all seem to have one big skill that could make them effective scoring PGs, but they come with big question marks.
Upon further research on guys I haven't seen play:
Flynn -Thumbs up. probably worth drafting. for a little guy he has that aggressive high jump that a lot of successful midgets have. I question how long it will take for him to be a starter on a good team. Syracuse players play a quirky zone and without exception seem to struggle with the transition to NBA defense. So do most rookies, but still.
Harden - Thumbs down. Don't get it and don't see why you'd draft him high. Seems like a classic effective college scorer whose skills don't translate to the next level. Like Fred Jones except without the crazy athleticism. On the other hand he has a solid J.
Johnson - Thumbs down. Older, with no real reason to take him other than raw size.
Teague - Thumbs down. Jason Terry without the Jumper. pass.
Jennings - Thumbs up. Not in the lotto but above the guys I'm giving a thumbs down to. Elite quickness can be enough to propel a guy into a good NBA career and it sounds like he has it. A risk, but worth it.
Derrik Brown - Thumbs up. Unselfishness, athleticism, length and 3 point shooting range - sounds like a solid NBA contributer to me.
Sleepers I like as late 1st, 2nd round steals (i.e. NBA contributer):
Taj Gibson, Jeff Pendergraph, Patrick Mills, Vyacheslav Kravtsov
I hope the Blazers get Lawson and the Pistons get Clark.
Just stay away from BJ Mullens. Please.
It’s the day before the draft and trades are happening left and right. It’s not too late for me to declare my draft board, so all year long I can tell you that you heard it here first.
It seems that every year there are several players who I see projected as late first round picks where I think “What gives? That guy is really underrated. The Pistons should draft him.” But, by the time draft day comes around those guys have gone through private workouts and have suddenly climbed the draft board to become projected lottery picks. Jonny Flynn and Terrence Williams were two of those guys this year. My point? JGW should be an NBA scout.
BTW, if you want to look back at JGW, Lankownia, and The Adviser’s genius, check out last year’s NBA Draft Live Blog: http://www.menvssports.com/2008/06/nba-draft-liveblog.html
My List:
1. Blake Griffin
I am positive that Griffin at the #1 is the right choice. Great inside scorer. Good defender. Puts the power in Power Forward. But, I’m struggling to come up with a good player comparison. He’s more of a power guy than a skill guy. He’s lacking a great mid-range game at this point. So here is my best comparison so far: Shawn Kemp. Anyone want to take a shot at a better comparison? I’ve heard Boozer, Malone, and McDyess but all those guys turned out to be great 10 foot shooters. Seems like that’s assuming a lot.
2. Jonny Flynn
The most exciting offensive player since Iverson…potentially. YouTube him if you don’t know. May turn out to be a great on the ball defender as well.
3. Earl Clark
Good inside and outside games. 6’10” with a good size frame. Very athletic. Went off from time to time in college looking like a superstar. The biggest concern is his mental discipline. Man, I hope he falls to the Pistons. It was looking good when they were projecting him around 17.
4. Ricky Rubio
I’m really wavering on Rubio. I don’t know what to believe. The fact that he’s an 18 year old looking like Pistol Pete out there, or that he’s another Euro perimeter player that everyone is going to overestimate. I decided that he’s the best parts of Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez in one player, so that is good for #4.
5. Hasheem Thabeet
While thoroughly unimpressive in college, he still has a 7’3” body that he can control better than most 7-plus footers. Interior defense is highly underrated and very beneficial and, if anything, he’ll provide that.
6. Gerald Henderson
The next three players are of the same ilk. That is, very athletic but slightly undersized wings. I think Gerald Henderson is the best of the bunch and is projected way too low right now. He’s got it all: Good perimeter defender. Good outside shooter. Sick dunker. Is he rated so low solely based on size?
7. DeMar DeRozan
Has enough upside to make him the #3 pick and he continuously progressed during his freshman year but the big knock is on his mental discipline and motor. Apparently the guy shows signs of not giving a fuck all the time. I watched him at the Nike Hoop Summit last year and didn’t really know who he was but he was the guy that caught my eye. He was the best athlete out there. He has the potential to be an all-star.
8. Terrence Williams
Originally projected late in the first round, teams are now starting to take notice of Williams. He’s super athletic, the type of guy who will sky for an offensive rebound, 360 spin putting the ball behind his bag in the opposite direction of his spin, and slam it home. He’s got the quickness and size to be a good defender. The only weakness is the inconsistency of his shot selection and shooting in general. He can fix that though.
9. Austin Daye
I plead ignorance but he’s supposedly 6’11”, skilled with the ball, and his biggest weakness is his weight? I’d take a chance on him.
10. Tyreke Evans
Another guy that I plead ignorance about. Seeing highlights I don’t see what all the fuss is about. I have nothing bad to say though and since everyone’s projecting top 5 though, I’ll put him at 10.
11. James Johnson
Tall, athletic scoring SF/PF. Everyone needs those.
12. Tyler Hansbrough
Lankownia put Hansbrough as a guy he wouldn’t draft, giving “obvious” as his only line of reasoning. Well, I’d like to officially start the Tyler Hansbrough debate. We all know Hansbrough’s ceiling. He won’t be a superstar in the league, but I think he has the tools to be a very solid big man. He’s not lightning quick or explosive but he’s not all that slow and stiff either. I think he can be very serviceable, averaging 14-9-3 in his first five seasons.
13. Sam Young
He’s 23 years old or something, so he’s almost in his prime! He’ll contribute right away.
14. Jeff Teague
He’s 20, has a killer crossover, is very quick, and seems to be smart beyond his years. I'd take a chance on him.
15. Stephen Curry
Curry is interesting because you know if you draft him you’re definitely getting the best shooter in the draft. But you also know he won’t be able to defend worth a lick. He may be the worst defender on this list. So, if you want that 6th man that’s going to light it up off the bench, go ahead and draft him.
Overrated:
- James Harden – Like Lankownia, I’m not seeing it. Maybe I just don’t like SGs that wear t-shirts under their jerseys though. I didn’t like Eric Gordon last year.
- Jordan Hill – I’m thoroughly unimpressed with Hill. I watched a few AZ games last year and he just seemed to exist.
- DeJuan Blair – When I watched Pitt in the tournament, I didn’t even notice Blair. I was much more enthralled with their fat dreaded PG. Blair is undersized for a PF and never really caught my eye. His highlights on YouTube are fairly unimpressive as well
- Jrue Holiday – I’m not sure why. Maybe because I confuse him with Darren Collison and Mario Chalmers.
- Ty Lawson – Too short. Fast, but not Aaron Brooks fast. Not a great leaper. Not going to be successful at the next level.
- BJ Mullens – Stiff
- Brandon Jennings – Not ready at all. Looks really underdeveloped on Euro highlights.
2nd Round Sleepers:
- Taj Gibson – Seemed really impressive to me but he’s 24 years old, so maybe that’s why
- Danny Green – He’s athletic and big for his position. I’d take a chance on him.
- Goran Suton – He can do some things. If I’m drafting in the middle of the 2nd, I would take him and try to turn him into a slightly smaller Memo.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Blazers (via Chad Ford):
The Blazers have been making inquiries all over the first round. Their main target has been Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair, a burly power forward who plays with a toughness the Blazers lack and coach Nate McMillan would appreciate.
However, Sunday night, there was talk Pritchard has even grander plans. With point guard Ricky Rubio possibly slipping out of the top four, the Blazers are talking to the Wizards about acquiring the No. 5 pick. Pritchard has been on the hunt for a point guard, and Rubio would be a nice fit to round out the Blazers' collection of young, unselfish talents.
OTOH,
There's no question Pritchard also is trying to figure out a way to get maximum cap room this summer to use for a free agent or in a trade. The Magic's Hedo Turkoglu gets the most mention, but sources say Portland's real target is Bulls point guard Kirk Hinrich.
If the Bulls re-sign Ben Gordon to a big contract this summer, they are going to have to part ways with Hinrich to be able to afford it. The Bulls are dangerously close to the luxury tax as it is, and gving Gordon a big deal would put them over the top. Enter the Blazers, who will have the cap space to absorb Hinrich's deal and put the Bulls back under the tax threshold.
Thats two moves that reflect opposite strategies to address the Blazer's PG deficiency. And yet I like them both. Rubio and Blair are top 5 players (according to me) in this draft. Despite PG being the biggest need I think you have to go after a veteran if you want this team to move forward. Hinrich seems like a great fit but his contract is pretty awful.
Blair is perfect for this team. If Oden pans out Blair becomes a a nice backup, but since I think he won't Blair is a really nice complement to LaMarcus Aldridges offensive-oriented rebound-deficient game. The only knock (supposedly) on Blair is his knee, which fits perfectly into the Blazer's strategy under Pritchard of drafting guys who came with injury concerns (Oden, Roy, Aldridge).
I like all these options and it seems like Pritchard is keeping his eyes open to whatever opportunities arise.
Pistons (via detroit news):
Pistons president Joe Dumars said Saturday there was "no chance" he was looking to trade his first-round pick. Nor was he looking to trade for an additional first-round pick. No promises or guarantees have been made to anybody.
While that could be misinformation, I hope not. Giving away draft picks almost never makes sense unless you're already a contender and need every cap dollar you can spare for contributers. Also, the rumored promises to BJ Mullens (with the 15th pick) and Ben Gordan (for a $11M/year free agent contract) were nightmares. Chad Ford is reporting:
The Pistons are looking at Clark and Daye, and if neither guy is on the board, then Mullens. As I reported on Friday, there is no Pistons' promise to Mullens.
I like Clark and Daye, and hate Mullens (have I said that enough times?). Joe D has been pretty transparent about who he is going to draft for years, so I tend to believe the rumors on him when they seem logical and fit his profile.
I like where this is headed. Now if he can just find a way to deal Rip Hamilton for serviceable center with a similarly onerous contract (Chandler/Dalembert/Brand/Kaman types) and find some free agent bargains to score...we might be somewhere.
Friday, June 19, 2009
I'm not an expert on stats, but I can tell you that for most of the more sophisticated front offices in the league, statistical analysis plays a very significant role in the draft process. Teams like the Rockets, Mavericks, Celtics, Thunder, Spurs, Sixers, Nuggets (I could go on and on) may use slightly different formulas and methodologies, but all of them are using statistical models to analyze the draft. For a handful of teams, what they find is a major factor in whom they choose to draft.
So if you're trying to understand the draft and get a handle on the whole picture, I highly recommend you read Hollinger's piece. The feedback I got from around the league on it was that what Hollinger was finding is very close to what a number of NBA teams are finding, especially when it comes to the two key players he singled out -- Ty Lawson and DeMar DeRozan.
Several NBA teams confirmed that their statistical models also had Lawson at or near the top and DeRozan at or near the bottom. Tyreke Evans is also a player who has gotten some boost from a statistical standpoint.
John Hollinger's rankings.
1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34
2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma 16.21
3. Tyreke Evans Memphis 15.02
4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24
5. Stephen Curry Davidson 14.18
6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66
7. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 13.56
8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28
9. Jonny Flynn Syracuse 12.99
10. James Harden Arizona State 12.97
11. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut 12.90
12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Monday, June 15, 2009
Friday, June 12, 2009
Lets hope he keeps it up in the NBA.
Only one thing has to happen and it very well could:
An injury to Terrell Pryor.
What about his backup?
Kenny Guiton, Rivals' #35 dual-threat QB and a guy who had offers from Kansas, Iowa State, Rice, and ... Prairie View. He's the only guy on the roster other than Pryor and fifth-year walk-on Joe Bauserman.
Granted, Michigan's backup is probably a 3rd year walk-on. But you have to think OSU is due for some bad luck, while UM has had plenty. Remember not to stretch TP.
When you need a stop - Jameer Nelson should not be in the game.
When you need a game winning shot - Mikhael Pietrus should not take it.
When you draw up an in-bounds pass - have an alternative to Plan A. 2 or 3 guys running to a spot and standing there looking around is not sufficient.
When Dwight Howard isn't hitting his free throws - don't give him the ball at the end of games. Even Shaq in his prime didn't get the rock in crunch time.
Get the MVPP in there.
Hedo Turkoglu - Heknow Whattodo
Live in New York. But leave before you get too hard. Live in San Francisco. But leave before you get too soft.
Or something.
The point is this stereotype of west coast ease vs. east coast toughness exists. In the sports world it thrives. East coast fans, particularly in places like Philadelphia in New York, are demanding, thankless, and unendingly harsh. In comparison, west coast fans were considered to be passive and happy - they had better things to do with their time like hike and shop for hiking clothes. An the old dog, cerebral curmudgeon, and a happy pup, blissfully unaware and indifferent.
I've lived on both coasts (sort of, watered-down versions at least) and I must say there is at least some truth to these stereotypes, in broad general terms:
Detroit/Michigan fans begin their sports conversation with a complaint. "Did you see xxxx last night. He killed us. Need to bring in yyyyy". This line of conversation is brought up with a negative opinion, but also implies some analysis with a suggestion on how to fix the situation, even in victory. A Portland/Oregon fan begins their conversation differently. "Did you see xxxx last night. Killed it. He was awesome." In one place a tough loss is handled with more conversation than a victory would bring. In the other its generally ignored.
The camaraderie lies in the shared frustration and analysis in the east. In the west, the sharing of experience of impressive athleticism and victory.
Personally I always saw myself as an east-coast type fan. I enjoy analysis and am thinking constantly about how to improve the team. I enjoy watching games, to be sure, but I want to chat about, gripe about it, and analyze how to improve. If I guy stinks I'm going to call him a bum, even if he can beat me in pretty much any sport I can think of. If I criticize a team its not because I hate them, its a sign of my interest in them improving. But lately...I've started to have some doubts. Is Lank changing colors from black and blue to fuchsia and teal?
What has brought this about is the Detroit Tigers. While being predicted to finish anywhere from the middle of the pack to last place the team has found itself, somehow, to be in 1st place and among the best teams in the American league. A few players have been way better than expected, all-star caliber. Others have been minor disappointments. And the focus of Detroit fans, almost universally, despite the surprise success has been on individual disappointments. It seems that the fans find whipping-boys each year, usually a pitcher and harp endlessly about how terrible they are. Those players will even get booed during home games regularly. This has started to drive me nuts and has brought about the self-reevaluation that you're reading now.
Now, in fairness to Tiger's fans there has been a lot of frustration built up. The Tigers were the worst franchise in pro sports during the 1990s. They made the lions of the last decade look like a success story (OK, that might be a stretch, but they were really really bad). Still...like, shut up. Your team is in first. Enjoy it! Quit randomly picking decent pitchers who happen to be going through a tough spot and enjoy the guys dominating batters, getting on base, and playing top notch D. This type of griping also bothered me with Michigan's last football coach, but at least I could blame a fanbase spoiled by decades of success. With the Tigers its inexplicable...
Anyway, maybe the west coast is starting to rub off on this guy after 5 years or so living here. Lets just hope I don't become one of those Blazers fans who looks at you sideways if you mention the flaws of bench players or suggest a way to address the weakness in the starting lineup. It just means I care.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
I guess it's a performance enhancing drug for the "sport". Personally, I think it further demonstrates how racing isn't a sport. In what other sport could an athlete use Meth and still be considered a viable performer
?
