I’m not particularly interested in either of the Eastern Conference semi-final series. While Boston and Atlanta may yet make things interesting I see no way they can win. Boston, after losing homecourt, is too devastated up front to handle Orlando’s size, and the Magic have enough perimeter defense (compared to say Chicago) to make Ray Allen and/or Paul Pierce’s lives difficult. I think its safe to assume Ed House isn't going to put up over 30 points again, especially now that Rafer is suspened (zing!) Cleveland is too good to not take advantage of Atlanta’s deficiencies (Mike Bibby’s D and interior size) unless Josh Smith goes nuts to compliment Joe Johnsons’ routine go-nuts-iness. Bottom line – Atlanta and Boston aren’t good enough to win without beneficial matchups they can exploit.
So, I’m looking ahead to the next round…
Defensively, I like what the Magic can do:
Lebron James, like Paul Pierce, can’t bully Hedo and Pietrus the way he would smaller wings. That means the double teams he’ll see will be tougher to pass around, forcing more jump-shooting situations – which is what you want. Pietrus seems like one of the better “Lebron-stoppers” in the league. A bigger gnat for Lebron to swat away, to be sure, but you can tire him out, at least a little, by making him work a little harder in what could be a long series.
Williams and West are good outside scorers who thrive on Lebron’s kick outs. Alston and Redick aren’t great defenders, but they should fare OK in these matchups. West isn’t a huge threat so if he tries to light up Redick so be it – those are shots Lebron could be taking. Alston just has to stay home on Williams.
Illgauskas can pull centers away from the basket. However, I think Howard is quick enough to both patrol the paint and get out on Illgauskas. If not, the Magic can throw Gortat and even Lewis at Illgauskas and not worry about getting killed because of their size.
Verajao isn’t a major offensive threat so either Lewis can handle him without much worry inside or Howard can focus a little more on help-side defense.
On the other end:
I’d worry about Illgauskas getting into foul trouble but Illgauskas and Verajao and even Wallace are big/strong/long enough to throw a variety of looks at him and keep him relatively in check inside. Like Lebron though, DH should get his no matter who guards him.
However, the other “Big” is played by Rashard Lewis, who is a matchup nightmare for Verajao or Wallace. Dragging them away from the interior takes them completely out of their games. You might see a lot of Joe Smith…
Lebron should keep Turkoglu in check and has done so in the three games they played this year.
Alston and Redick/Pietrus/Lee aren’t huge scorers, but you have to respect them from 3. West and Williams won’t be challenged but have to stay home. Regardless, West’s impact as a defensive stopper is minimized because he won’t be on either of the Magic’s 3 top scorers.
I love this matchup for Ray Lewis. It’s potentially a major advantage that Cleveland will need to counter by going small, maybe shifting Lebron to PF. It will be interesting to see if that happens.
Orlando won 2 of the 3 regular season games these teams played. Both games in Orlando where double digit victories (though Jameer Nelson was around for one of those – an early season game that Illgauskas also missed.) The other game, in Clevland, was a close one where DH was kept in check but Rafer poured in 23 to keep it close despite Shard going 0-8 from 3 and Lebron putting up 43-12-8.
The keys to this series (besides the obvious Lebron/DH playing up to their capabilities vs. being held in check) is Orlando’s ability to take advantage of the Lewis matchup and as always with him, Rafer’s ability to provide consistent productivity – offensively hitting 3s and creating shots for all the 3-shooters Orlando has, and defensively, staying disciplined enough to stick to Williams rather than going for steals. I think ultimately Cleveland will adjust to the Lewis situation and put Lebron or Joe Smith at PF. But in the meantime Orlando could win enough to pull the upset.
While I still think the Cavs will come away victors, this is to me the true NBA finals. I think Orlando will provide more of a challenge than anyone else Cleveland will see.