No one knows what the future holds and it is foolish to take rookie performance and assume it will translate across entire careers. Some players come in with more polished skills and physically ready than others. BUT, generally, its an OK indicator of future performance. To be taken with a grain of salt, obviously. But it merits discussion...
I'm not going to rehash the Oden/Durant debate because we've done that to death and frankly, failing to acknowledge Durant's superiority at this point is just plain stubborn. The strongest argument against taking Durant was that big men are much harder to find and therefore you HAVE to take the potentially elite center. Its a point I don't disagree with.
Consider NBA champions in our lifetime have almost always included elite hall-of-fame bigs - Duncan, Shaq, Garnett, Kareem, McHale. Only the Piston's balanced teams have been the exception, and of course, Michael Jordan (who was so good in his prime he could win with practically any supporting cast, like Lebron, maybe, probably). The issue is that Oden isn't a potentially elite center, based on his performance, no matter how much scouts drool.
I'm going to focus the discussion on big men (rookies and sophomores) the Blazers could have had (via trade or draft) who would be superior to Oden. I'm not even going to bring up the mental or physical concerns about Oden or the others. We're just going to talk about on-court performance. And we're just going to talk about Centers.
GREG ODEN
8 ppg 7 rpg 1 bpg. 16.3 PER
This is obviously a disappointment given all his hype coming in, but excuse makers will point to his playing time 23 mpg and fouls 3.8 pg (as if that wasn't his fault.) The PER takes that into account.
Now here is a list of players who have outperformed that, and generally looked better while doing it.
MARC GASOL
11 ppg 7 rpg 1 bpg. 15.7 PER
In 7 more minutes per game Gasol is superior numbers. Nearly equivalent on a minutes per game basis. It looks like the Grizzlies made out just fine in the Marc for Pau deal. Gasol would be superior to Oden if for no other reason than he is paid less.
BROOK LOPEZ
11ppg 8 rpg 2 bpg. 15.6 PER
In 30 mpg Lopez has outproduced Oden in every statistical category. Gifted offensively, he's shown he can play some D as well. 5th in the NBA in blocked shots.
KOSTO KOUFOS
5ppg 3.5 rpg 1bpg. 15.3 PER
This in 13 mpg - about half of Oden. Double it and you get better numbers than Oden.
ROY HIBBERT
6ppg e rpg 1bpg. 16.2 PER
13mpg but now starting. Are you sensing a theme here? Oden is just another big man. Nothing special. He's not even 7 feet tall like Hibbert (7-2).
MARRESSE SPEIGHTS
8ppg 4 rpg 1bpg. 20.7 PER
Not sure if he is a true center but he is 6'10 and thick. Those numbers are in 15mpg. Still raw defensively but very impressive. Numbers may be a little inflated from playing more garbage time minutes than the starters on this list.
AL HORFORD
11ppg 9 rpg 1.5bpg. 16.4 PER
I'm breaking my rule to include Horford, who really should be playing PF, but is currently a center. Like Oden he has no real post game, but has shown he is more effective, more of a leader, more competitive and bigger winner (but we saw this in college, so no surprise.)
SPENCER HAWES
11ppg 7rpg 1.5bpg. 13.1 PER
A great outside shot(range to 3 where he shoots an excellent 36%) and shotblocking presence ensures he'll have a long career in the NBA. Oh, and he is the same age as Oden, and didn't spend a year playing Wi instead of going to work.
All these guys look just as good as Oden, if not better. Yet the Blazers are devoting a ton of money and attention on him. They wasted the #1 pick on him when they could have had so much for it. Ask yourself if you'd rather have Devin Harris and Brook Lopez than Greg Oden right now? The Nets would have done it, but now that we see what Oden is, we know just how mediocre and overrated he is. Wouldn't Al Horford be a perfect fit for the character of this team? Etc. Oden is, at best, a pedestrian big man. Which is fine, but not what you want with the #1 pick in a draft that includes Kevin Durant.
Its time to acknowledge it blazer fans - Oden was a mistake.