Joe Girardi is dense. For risking losing the World Series with the markedly better team. The problem: throwing starters without enough rest.
It was understandable in Game 4 to pitch Sabathia on only three days rest because his odds of winning go way up, if not matched against Philadelphia's Cliff Lee. Get the 3-1 series lead, put the Phillies on the ropes, and make Charlie Manuel have to pull out all the stops (like overworking middle relievers) in three straight games.
But why start Burnett on three days rest against Lee in Philadelphia? Why not figure you have a long shot to beat Lee, so throw Chamberlain; then have a well-rested Burnett on the mound at home in New York for Game 6.
But no. Girardi threw the tired Burnett, and now he has to maintain his sequence of weary starters and pitch the unrested Petitte.
Philadelphia's only advantage in this series is that they have four starters. It might be enough now that Girardi's impatience put Game 6 in danger trying to salvage a Game 5 that was probably lost from the get go.
Ultimately, I place the blame with Steinbrenner and his perennial problems picking managers. The Yankees would be going into New York for Game 6 (and 7) with a well-rested Burnett (and Petitte), if only Steinbrenner had given the job to Don Mattingly.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
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5 comments:
I don't like throwing people on short rest unless its absolutely necessary. Chamberlin seems good enough to give a shot for one game.
I would be interested in seeing some statistics on performance of starters on three days rest compared to their performances after 4 or 5. I've always thought the whole 4 days rest thing was overrated, unless you're talking about the long hall in which wear and tear over the length of the season makes it sensible. But, that thinking is not substantiated by any evidence, just the sense I get when thinking about any other strenuous activity. After doing a repetitive thing like weight lifting or throwing a football, I can get sore for 5 days sometimes. But, I'm 31 and most of my muscles are atrophied from doing nothing but typing comments on blogs.
Petitte is like 38. I had his rookie card in middle school.
There probably are not very good comparative stats since the number of observations of 3-days rest must be quite small. But because its so small, leads me to believe that collective expert wisdom says its bad.
Also, on Sportscenter postgame after Game 6, Peter Gammons gave tons of stats about how after pitching 150 pitches Petitte had never done anything, and also in occassions w/o rest. And he also gave stats revealing how sucky Petitte was today. i.e. Strikes were only half of his pitches, etc. Apparently, he just was bad at the right moments and good at the righer moments. Anyway, I was going to remember the stats and prove my intelligence on the blog, but instead I just report his heresy.
Oh yeah: Matsui!??!?!?! Pinchhitter MVP. Awesome. They should make Rudy II. Except that he is the best pinch hitter in the history of the game.
Theres a lot of stats out there about pitching on 3 days rest. They can be biased because usually only stud pitchers do it, or just limited by sample size. But most evidence says its a significant disadvantage. But significant might just be half a run in ERA, so if you're giving up a run and a half over three games maybe avoiding your 4th starter is worth that, especially if your guys have a decent track record with pitching on 4 days. Its not a totally obvious decision either way...
i mean a track record of picthing on 3 days if it wasnt obvs
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