I just have these quotes from a conversation between, jeremy, jgw and me so it's preserved for the future:
(Two weeks before the season)
JGW: In the case that Tate Forcier DOESN’T get knocked out for the season happens (20% chance), we’re going 9-3.
Lank: I think thats overestimating the swing between the two personally. Tate has to be one of the most overrated/hyped incoming freshman ever. Yeah, the spring game and early enrollment and QB High and all that... He's still just a little punk kid.
HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL!
Saturday, October 31, 2009
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11 comments:
OK, thats bitchy. But the expectations I saw as unrealistic bugged me a bit. I predicted 6 wins and that looks like what will happen. Unfortunately, after a win vs Purdue and loss at Wisconsin, the Ohio State game will decide, again, if the season is a good one or bad one in the eye of most.
I havent seen anything since the ND game, but he seemed like a scrappy winner to me.
Vince Young is awesome if recent history is ignored.
where do i fit into this? oh, i know: i said 14-0 and a super bowl win.
at this point in the season we're well versed on why michigan's just not very good. i certainly didn't think we were bad enough to get rolled by illinois. i wish i remember how many wins i was expecting at the beginning of the year. probably seven or eight. the seven is very plausible considering unpredictable teams like michigan will lose one [or more] they should have won and steal one they should have lost. i'm looking at you, ohio state. i still think there's a reasonable chance we beat them, basically because their offense is a joke.
This season they've won one they were supposed to lose and lost one they were to win. On the balance, thats fine, but it doesn't feel like it because, like last year, the mistakes and bad news seem to be ramping up over the course.
We have, like, a 20% shot vs. OSU. Hopefully more time can be devoted to gameplanning them over the next 3 weeks while they deal with Iowa and PSU.
i think there's a better than 20% chance we beat ohio state, for two reasons:
1. they're going to be preoccupied playing real teams, as you already mentioned. they have to play iowa the week before, possibly with the B10 title on the line. I wouldn't normally expect an emotional letdown against Michigan, but they have to be bored kicking our asses every year, right, so it's possible.
2. Terrell Pryor sucks. He may show flashes of brilliance [basically, running through an Ezeh arm tackle en route to a 40 yard TD run], but he's just as liable to implode as he is to wake up in the morning. Obviously, our defense isn't very opportunistic, so while I fully expect Pryor to gift wrap something, I don't know if it'll actually do us any good.
As far as already taking one we should have lost, I don't know. Notre Dame's just not that good enough of a team for me to think we stole one from them. Plus, we were still a bit unpredictable at that point in the season, so I'm going to continue calling that a legitimate win. Why? So I can continue to feel optimistic about stealing one from OSU instead.
I think you're discounting how bad this team is. Our offense may, perhaps, be better than theirs when it isn't handing the other team the ball, but our defense is atrocious and capable of making anyone look great. Pryor looks sucky but is probably still better than Juice Williams. And their defense is in the same realm as Penn State and Iowa (without the stupid two-deep scheme).
15%
not discounting how horrible are defense is all. i just think osu's offense is as well suited to take advantage of it well as others have been. who cares how shite the secondary is if pryor can't even throw the ball past where they line up.
obviously, my hopes rely on things coming together in a perfect storm. i'm not banking on it.
Fair enough. We'll have to agree to disagree on the liklihood of the perfect storm. Pryor isn't a good passer but he's good enough on his feet to gash this D repeatedly.
i think the only thing we disagree on is the arbitrary percentage we give our chances of winning. part of my perfect storm is finishing tackles, you know..
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